NHS waiting list recovery ‘could take years’ report reveals

Waiting lists won’t reduce to pre-pandemic levels by December 2027 even in the best case sceario according to reserchers

NHS waiting lists will take more than three years to be reduced to pre-pandemic levels, according to a new analysis.

Despite recent reductions in the waiting list in England, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) think tank said that it is “unlikely that waiting lists will reach pre-pandemic levels” by December 2027 – even under a “best-case scenario”.

The latest figures show that the waiting list for routine hospital treatment in England has fallen for the third month in a row.

An estimated 7.6 million treatments were waiting to be carried out at the end of December, relating to 6.37 million patients, down slightly from 7.61 million treatments and 6.39 million patients at the end of November, according to NHS England figures.

Cutting NHS waiting lists is one of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s top priorities. However, the PM admitted earlier this month he would not meet his promise to reduce waiting lists.

However, the new IFS analysis highlights how the NHS waiting list was already growing before the pandemic, but it rose “rapidly” during the crisis. The IFS report suggests a range of scenarios about how the waiting list could look in December 2024.

Under a “more pessimistic scenario”, waiting lists will remain at the same elevated level while an “optimistic scenario” would see them fall to 5.2 million by December 2027.

But the authors point out that even under this best-case scenario, the waiting list will still be higher than it was before the Covid-19 pandemic. The waiting list was 4.6 million in December 2019.

Under the IFS’s “central scenario”, waiting lists would start to fall “consistently but slowly” from the middle of 2024 but it would still stand at 6.5 million in December 2027.

“We therefore assess it to be very unlikely that waiting lists will reach pre-pandemic levels over the next four years,” the authors wrote.

IFS research economist Max Warner, and author of the report, said: “The next government may well inherit a falling elective NHS waiting list in England. But even with a trend pointing in the right direction, waiting lists will still be far higher than they have been – and long waiting times are unlikely to go away any time soon.”

Rishi Sunak admitted to failing on his promise to cut NHS waiting lists (PA Wire)

Commenting on the report, Sir Julian Hartley, chief executive at NHS Providers, said that efforts to bring down the waiting list are being “thwarted” by “squeezed funding in the NHS, the fallout of the pandemic, severe workforce shortages and strikes”.

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokeswoman Sarah Olney said: “This damning analysis reveals the lasting damage done to the NHS by years of neglect under this Conservative government.

“Rishi Sunak’s failure to meet his pledge to bring waiting lists down has left millions of people in limbo, waiting in pain for the treatment they need.

“Conservative ministers need to take responsibility for fixing this mess, starting by cancelling their disastrously short-sighted real-terms cuts to NHS spending.

“We cannot get the economy firing on all cylinders again without helping people off NHS waiting lists and back into work.”

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesman said: “We recognise the challenges the NHS faces, and we are taking the long-term decisions needed to make our health service faster, simpler and fairer, cutting waiting lists and ensuring people get the care they need.”

It said overall waiting lists have decreased for three months in a row, despite winter pressures and industrial action.