Flu crisis in numbers: Where cases are rising as NHS struggles under strain

Positive flu cases are rising as NHS grapples with record hospitalisations going into winter

Concerns have been raised over a rising number of flu and norovirus cases (PA) (PA Wire)

The latest NHS data released today shows that flu hospitalisations are four times higher than this time last year, with “barely a spare bed” as hospitals fill up rapidly.

This year’s flu rates are in line with the 2022 flu surge, according to figures from the Health Security Agency, but are far higher than the same time last year (with 12.9 per cent of flu tests coming back positive, compared to 2.3 per cent).

Check back for weekly updates on flu cases and NHS occupancy.

The NHS warns that flu season often peaks in late December or early January, meaning that we are likely at the start of a higher surge.

The number of hospital beds taken up by flu patients reached 1,251 on December 1, with an average of 1,099 beds throughout last week.

The latest data showed that 40 of these patients were in critical care.

At the same time last year, the number of flu patients in hospital beds was just 243; and in 2022, the number was 772.

The number of flu hospitalisations is the highest going into winter in three years. Hospitals in the north east have been particularly inundated with hospitalisations for influenza, with 469 beds occupied, including in Leeds Teaching Hospital Trust which has reached full occupancy.

In the Midlands there are also a high number of flu admissions, with 164 beds in University Hospitals Birmingham alone.

This comes in the midst of over-occupancy across the NHS, with less than 5 per cent of beds available nationally at various points last week.

By the end of last week, 55 NHS trusts had 95 per cent of beds full.

Four NHS Trusts - in North Middlesex, Leeds, Wye Valley, and Wrightington, Wigan and Leigh - had no free beds left by the end of last week.

Bracing for a high-flu winter

As we enter winter, peaking flu and contagion rates will place further strain on the NHS, with some areas already struggling to cope with the growing number of admissions.

The Met Office has just issued new weather warnings as temperatures are expected to plunge below freezing in some parts of the UK, with heavy rain and 75mph winds.

Though cold weather itself does not cause influenza, research has found that viruses thrive in colder, damper conditions with no sunlight, which is why contagion is highest in winter.

In addition, temperature drops of as little as 5 degrees can inhibit the immune system’s ability to fight illness.

Last week, an estimated 1,438 people died in the UK with links to influenza or pneumonia-related causes. This makes up 13 percent of all deaths.

An estimated 406 of those deaths were directly caused by flu or pneumonia; with 20,078 deaths in 2024 so far.

The government’s decision to cut winter fuel payments for around 10 million pensioners this winter means that more people may be affected by cold temperatures and ill health in the coming months.

However, it is too early for the data to reflect any change in cold-related deaths or illness, which remains to be seen after the winter.