Morbid obesity in Britain due to double by 2035 as inequality grows, finds study

Scotland currently has highest rate of morbid obesity but is likely to be overtaken by Wales where incidence will quadruple, authors warn

The number of people in England, Wales and Scotland diagnosed with morbid obesity is expected to double by 2035, according to a new study that warns widening social inequality poses a major health risk.

Close to 5 million people are expected to be diagnosed with morbid obesity in Great Britain over the next two decades, an increase on the 1.9 million recorded as of 2015.

The condition, defined as having a body mass index (BMI) greater than 40, significantly increases the risk of type 2 diabetes, heart disease, strokes and cancer.

This risk, and the cost to the NHS, increases with every point of BMI and could result in a major economic toll as well as the health cost if governments fail to get to grips with it, the researchers from the UK and Ireland said.

While Scotland currently has fractionally higher rates of morbid obesity, 4 per cent in 2015 compared with 3 per cent in England and Wales, this is due to reverse.

Under current trends it is predicted that 11 per cent of the population in Wales will be morbidly obese in 2035, roughly 340,000 adults, while Scotland is likely to plateau at about 5 per cent and England will rise to about 8 per cent.

“Wales have a greater portion of the population deprived per capita than England, this may be a potential reason,” Laura Webber, an honorary assistant professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and a director of public health modelling at the UK Health Forum, told The Independent.

“In terms of morbid obesity specifically, Wales only have one obesity clinic, which could also impact.”

In England, where close to 4.4 million adults will be affected, 16 per cent of men between the age of 55 and 64 are predicted to be morbidly obese – the highest prevalence of any group.

“The morbidly obese group are particularly vulnerable to diseases, which is of course very costly to the NHS,” Ms Webber added.

Morbid obesity is already a huge burden on the economy and health services, accounting for around a third of all obesity-related costs.

While overweight and obesity trends for Great Britain have been projected to 2035, until now there have been no trend estimates for morbid obesity.

BMI is a widely accepted measure of obesity, calculated as a person’s weight divided by their height squared, to be morbidly obese it must exceed 40kg/m2. Other metrics look at whether a person is suffering obesity related diseases before age 35.

The latest findings on morbid obesity are being presented at the European Obesity Congress in Vienna on Saturday.

Webber and her co-author, Laura Keaver from the Sligo Institute of Technology in the Republic of Ireland, said measures to reverse these trends and the underlying social causes “must be an important public health priority”.

Growth in obesity is predicted from annual health reports from each country – there was insufficient data for Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland – coupled with employment and education data – socioeconomic factors that have been shown to be important predictors of BMI.

In Scotland, the significantly slower rate of growth can be attributed to work carried out by the Scottish government in addressing inequality, the researchers said.

“The government put a massive push on developing a route map for how we can actually combat this,” said Ms Keaver.

“They put together resources from the NHS that were proving to be effective. They did put a lot of work into it.”

Meanwhile in England a tax on sugary drinks has helped many producers reformulate their products, but a voluntary levy on sugary foods has not resulted in manufacturers making significant reductions.

For Wales, where the inequality between people in managerial-level jobs and routine or manual professions is expected to become more significant, the pair say health interventions should be targeted at these groups.

A spokesperson for Public Health Wales told The Independent: “Health trends and future predictions are complex, and predictions should not be taken as facts – they provide us with a picture of where past trends may take us if nothing changes, and give us great motivation to try and change those trends for a better future.

While tackling obesity, especially in early years, is a priority and a new obesity strategy is under development – to be published in the autumn – they added “we have a significant challenge to overcome”.