Coronavirus: UK lockdown exit plan could cause up to 750,000 excess deaths within year, study claims

Research considering potential health service strain warns those at risk in need of further support

A man wears a face mask on the London Underground District line during what would normally be the evening rush hour (PA)

Measures to ease the lockdown in the UK could lead to tens of thousands of extra deaths if vulnerable people are not sufficiently protected and health care systems are put under strain, a study has suggested.

Boris Johnson announced the first step towards normalcy — allowing unlimited exercise, one on one outdoor social meetings and a return to work for those who cannot do so at home — against a background of flattening infection numbers and fatalities caused by the virus.

However in a study published in medical journal The Lancet, research led by University College London (UCL) has warned between 37,000 and 730,000 excess deaths could take place due to the direct and indirect effects of the virus within a year.

Based on the analysis of 3.8 million health records, the study argued the risk of death among people with health conditions, such as heart disease or diabetes, is five times higher than in people without underlying conditions and easing the lockdown must take into account this clinical vulnerability.

The estimate, which could see death toll associated with the virus more than double, was based on the population in England having a 10 per cent infection rate, with 20 per cent of that number having at least one of the high-risk underlying conditions as listed by Public Health England.

Lead author Dr Amitava Banerjee said: “Older people, those with one or more underlying conditions and their carers are asking what easing the lockdown might mean for their health.

“Using data modelling on a number of different scenarios, our findings show the mortality risk for these vulnerable groups increases significantly, and could lead to thousands of avoidable deaths.”

As part of the study researchers devised a publicly accessible Covid-19 “risk calculator” that modelled both the effect of age sex and underlying health conditions on an individual, but also the impacts of the healthcare system being put under strain — with researchers arguing protecting the NHS remained as high a priority as controlling the virus for people with underlying conditions.

Senior author, Professor Harry Hemingway added: “Vaccines and drugs will take time to develop and evaluate.

“What works right now is two things. Firstly keeping the population infection rate as low as possible, and avoiding infection in the people at highest risk.

“Secondly we need to continue to deliver high quality medical care to vulnerable people to prevent excess deaths in those who are not infected with coronavirus.”