Monthly deaths 5,000 lower than forecast in England and Wales despite Omicron surge

New figures come as Boris Johnson announces end to Covid restrictions

(AFP via Getty Images)

Death rates fell below the five-year average during January despite a surge in Covid cases from the Omicron variant, official figures have revealed.

Nearly 5,000 fewer people died across England and Wales last month than would be expected in January despite deaths from coronavirus.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) found that the five-year average for deaths in England and Wales in the first four weeks of the year is 55,130, however this year the number of deaths registered in January was 50,740.

Of the deaths registered in the final week of January, 1,385 mentioned Covid - accounting for 11.2 per cent of all deaths; this was a decrease in the number of deaths compared with the previous week (1,484 deaths, 11.6 per cent of all deaths).

Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, told the Daily Telegraph: “We now have ONS-reported deaths data for the first four weeks of 2022, and there are some interesting observations.

“Firstly, total deaths from all causes are lower than the average for 2015 to 2019, so we are not seeing more deaths so far this year than we would expect for this month in the years before Covid.

“And, in an increasing proportion of deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test, the certifying doctor has not considered Covid to have contributed to the cause of death. These figures are based on date reported, not date of death, so will be less biased by time to report delays that can affect recent data based on date of death.”

It comes as Boris Johnson announced the government wants to end all domestic Covid restrictions in England, including the legal requirement to self-isolate, a month earlier than planned.

The prime minister told MPs: “Provided the current encouraging trends in the data continue, it is my expectation that we will be able to end the last domestic restrictions - including the legal requirement to self-isolate if you test positive - a full month early.”

He said he would present the government’s ‘Living With Covid’ strategy when the Commons returns from its recess on 21 February.

The move will make England the first major nation to stand down all of its domestic coronavirus rules, as Downing Street said that the country was “entering the stage of endemicity” of the disease, thanks to a successful vaccine and booster programme.

However, in regard to coronavirus cases, ONS figures revealed this is actually on the rise.

In England, around one in 19 people in private households were estimated to have had the virus in the week to 5 February, or 2.8 million people - up from one in 20, or 2.6 million people, in the week to 29 January, though the ONS described the trend as “uncertain”.

Worldwide, there have been half a million deaths from the Omicron variant since it was declared a variant of concern in late November, according to the WHO.

More than 130 million cases and 500,000 deaths have been recorded globally since Omicron was declared a variant of concern in late November.