Lifting Covid restrictions for Christmas will cost lives, expert warns

No 10 says the PM’s ‘ambition’ is that families can celebrate Christmas with their loved ones

Britons will die if Boris Johnson lifts strict coronavirus restrictions to allow families to celebrate Christmas together, one of the architects of lockdown has warned.  

Schools may also have to close to older children if cases continue to rise at the current rate, Professor Neil Ferguson warned.  

Professor Ferguson, whose modelling sparked the original lockdown in March, also warned the NHS would soon be left unable to cope unless the spread of infections was curtailed.  

His warning came as Dan Jarvis, the mayor of Sheffield City Region, said he would not hesitate to demand more support from government as his area became the latest tier 3 area in England.  

New daily figures also showed a further 23,012 cases confirmed and 174 deaths.  

No 10 has said it is the prime minister’s “ambition” for families to celebrate Christmas with their loved ones.  

Professor Ferguson said any decision on Christmas Day would be one of “political judgement”.  

“It risks some transmission and there will be consequences of that. Some people will die because of getting infected on that day,” he said.

“But if it is only one or two days the impact is likely to be limited. So that is really a political judgment about the cost versus the benefits.”

He said it was “worrying” that there are now 8,000 coronavirus patients in hospital.

“If the rate of growth continues as it is it means that in a month’s time we will be above that peak level in March and that is probably unsustainable,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

“We are in a critical time right now. The health system will not be able to cope with this rate of growth for much longer.”

But he warned it would take another week or two to understand if tighter restrictions, including placing South Yorkshire in tier 3 alongside Liverpool City Region, Greater Manchester and Lancashire, were working.

Tougher action might be needed, including closing schools to older children.  

Official statistics show rates of the disease are much higher among older pupils than younger children.  

Professor Ferguson said: “Nobody wants to start moving to virtual education and closing schools even partially. The challenge may be that we are not able to get on top of the transmission otherwise.”

Boris Johnson has said schools will be the last to close as the country battles Covid-19.

Schools reopened fully in September, six months after lockdown. 

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) believes the UK’s R number, or reproduction rate, has fallen slightly to between 1.2 and 1.4, down from between 1.3 and 1.5.