Covid: R rate of infection falls below 1 for first time since July with slight weekly decrease

Rate of coronavirus transmission across UK now estimated to be between 0.7 and 0.9

The reproduction number, or R value, of coronavirus has fallen below one for the first time since July.

The rate of coronavirus transmission across the UK is now estimated to be between 0.7 and 0.9, according to the latest government figures. Last week, it was between 0.7 and 1.

In a sign that lockdown restrictions are having an impact and the epidemic is shrinking, the government’s scientific advisers gave their most optimistic outlook for the R number since cases fell last summer.

R represents the average number of people each Covid-19 positive person goes on to infect.

When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially, but when it is below 1 it means the number of new infections is shrinking.

An R number between 0.7 and 0.9 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between seven and nine other people.

It comes as new data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows a drop in infections, with around one in 80 people in private households in England having Covid-19 between 31 January and 6 February, the equivalent of 695,400 people.

This is down from around one in 65 people for the period 24 to 30 January.

The data is based on swab results from people with and without symptoms.

On 9 February, the latest date for which figures are available, the number of patients in hospital with Covid-19 in the UK stood at 25,621.

This is down 35 per cent from a peak of 39,236 on 18 January, and is the lowest number since 29 December.

But while scientists advising the government believe cases of Covid-19 are dropping at a decent pace across England, they have warned that infection levels remain high.

Prime minister Boris Johnson is facing calls from Tory sceptics to ease the lockdown once the pressure on the NHS eases and deaths drop.

But scientists argue that case numbers are still too high for a significant loosening of restrictions.

They believe that only by driving case numbers to much lower levels can NHS Test and Trace and surge testing work properly.

With low case numbers, clusters of cases can be identified more easily and new mutations to the virus can be picked up, one government scientific adviser said.

They argued that loosening restrictions when cases are low means there is less chance of R going above one, which leads to exponential growth of the virus, and this creates a quicker path back to normal life.

The current halving time of the virus (the time it takes to the number of new infections to halve in size) is thought to be at around 14 to 17 days.

Scientific advisers believe that if this continues, aided by the rollout of vaccines, then low case numbers can be achieved in the next two to three months.

Additional reporting by PA