Covid infections fall to similar levels recorded before winter wave

Scientists and health experts continue to warn against lifting restrictions too quickly despite the encouraging data

The number of coronavirus infections in the UK is returning to the same levels seen before the onset of the devastating winter wave, the latest data shows.

A total of 12,057 new cases were recorded across the UK today – a 10.6 per cent drop from last Thursday’s figures – while the seven-day average for Covid-19 hospitalisations has decreased by nearly 25 per cent compared to the previous week.

Separate data from Test and Trace has meanwhile shown that the number of weekly cases in England is continuing to plummet.

Between 4 and 10 February, 106,474 people tested positive for coronavirus – the lowest recorded figure since mid-October of last year. This is down from the 148,809 infections that were detected the week before.

Infection rates have also fallen in all but two local authorities across the country, according to the latest weekly surveillance report published by Public Health England (PHE).

This shows that 147 out of 149 councils – or 98.7 per cent – saw a drop in their infection rate over the seven days up to 14 February.

Only northeast Lincolnshire and Tameside, in Greater Manchester, recorded rises in case numbers by 11.9 and 8.9 per cent respectively. 

The same PHE report found that case rates in England are also continuing to fall among all age groups.

The highest rate is among 30- to 39-year-olds, which stood at 192.5 cases per 100,000 between 7 and 14 February – down week-on-week from 270.8.

Among 20- to 29-year-olds, the rate dropped from 253.2 to 173.4 per 100,000, and for 40- to 49-year-olds it fell from 232.2 to 162.9.

Earlier in the week, Imperial College London’s React study – which is used by the government to help judge the state of the UK’s outbreak – found infections have dropped by two-thirds across England since lockdown began, with an 80 per cent fall in London.

Early data seen by the government has meanwhile suggested that the coronavirus jabs are having a “really encouraging” impact on transmission, according to vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi.

On Tuesday, he said that research from Oxford University has been promising but cited two ongoing PHE studies on the impact of vaccines – the Vivaldi study on care home residents and staff, and the Siren research on healthcare workers – as being key. “We should be able to see really good data in the next few weeks from those studies,” he added.

Despite the encouraging figures that have emerged in recent days, scientists and health experts have warned that lifting restrictions too quickly could fuel another wave of infections and hospitalisations – even with the the successes of the UK’s vaccine rollout.

The government intends to unveil its roadmap for exiting the current lockdown on Monday, with many business groups and politicians demanding an accelerated timeframe amid fears that restrictions could last for months to come.

Prime minister Boris Johnson has said that he will adopt a data-led approach to lifting measures in England.

NHS Providers, which represents trusts across the country, said services were “still stretched” and urged against rushing out of lockdown.

“We are at a critical juncture. The government next week will lay out its roadmap to ease restrictions, which ultimately will impact people’s wellbeing and the NHS’ ability to cope,” Saffron Cordery, the deputy chief executive of NHS Providers, said on Thursday.

“We are past the peak of this wave of the pandemic, but today’s figures highlight just how stretched the NHS still is. We are continuing to see more than 10,000 Covid-19 cases each day. We expect these pressures to remain for the next six to eight weeks.

“Lessons must be learned from the past year if this is to be the last national lockdown. Trust leaders are clear: the government’s approach must be to remain cautious.”

The picture has been complicated by the evolution of the coronavirus and emergence of new variants, some of which have been shown to evade certain parts of the immune response triggered by the Covid-19 vaccines.

Greater surge testing is being introduced in England after more cases were linked to the coronavirus variant first detected in South Africa.

The variant was found in parts of Leeds, prompting the Department of Health and Social Care to implement additional testing and genomic sequencing within the area as part of efforts to control its spread.

People in the LS8 postcode, including parts of Harehills and the area just north of Easterly Road where the variant was found, are being “strongly encouraged” to take a test when offered, whether or not they have symptoms.

Earlier this week the department said targeted testing regimes would be set up in parts of Norfolk, Southampton and Woking in Surrey in response to the spread of the South African variant.

Despite these setbacks, research suggests that the current generation of vaccines will prove effective in preventing serious disease, hospitalisation and death from the different variants that have been detected across the globe. People may still develop mild symptoms.

To date, a total of 16,423,082 people in UK have now received a first dose of Covid-19 vaccine, according to the latest government figures.

This is the equivalent of 24.6 per cent of the total UK population, and 31.2 per cent of people aged 18 and over.

A total of 4,083,242 infections have been confirmed while 129,498 people have died – the fourth-highest death rate in the world.