Covid: Schools may have to close to prevent spread of new variant, study warns

New research suggests the new variant of Covid-19 could lead to more deaths without mass vaccination

Schools may have to close to stop the spread of the new Covid variant (PA)

Schools may have to close to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus variant, scientists have warned.

A study published on Wednesday by experts at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine also warns the new variant, which is thought to be behind a significant spike in infections across London and the southeast, will lead to more deaths in 2021.

This is not because the variant is more deadly but because it will infect more people, a proportion of which will become seriously ill and need to be admitted to hospital.

The NHS is already seeing significant numbers of Covid-19 patients in hospital with NHS trusts in England reporting just less than 1,000 patients shy of England’s April peak of 18,974.

The study, which has been released ahead of being peer reviewed, concludes: “Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number R to less than 1 unless primary schools, secondary schools and universities are also closed.

“We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures. It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine rollout to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden.”

Ministers have been determined to keep schools open throughout the national lockdown as children seemed less at risk from the virus and studies have shown infections within schools mirrored those in the neighbouring communities.

But the new variant may force a change to these calculations after data showed it had a statistically significant higher level of infection among those aged under 15.

Earlier this week Professor Neil Ferguson warned the variant had a “hint” it could better infect children thanks to genetic changes that means it is better able to latch onto human cells.

The new study used a mathematical model of the spread of Covid-19 virus and the frequency of the new variant in the southeast, east of England and London.

It found the new variant was 56 per cent more transmissible, with a lower estimate of 50 per cent and an upper estimate of 74 per cent.

It added: “We were unable to find clear evidence that [it] results in greater or lesser severity of disease than pre-existing variants. Nevertheless, the increase in transmissibility is likely to lead to a large increase in incidence, with Covid-19 hospitalisations and deaths projected to reach higher levels in 2021 than were observed in 2020, even if regional tiered restrictions implemented before 19 December are maintained.”

The study models several scenarios with tier 4 restrictions across England lasting until 31 January and one with schools and universities remaining closed until 31 January.

It said: “We found that regardless of control measures simulated, all NHS regions are projected to experience a subsequent wave of Covid-19 cases and deaths, peaking in spring 2021 for London, southeast and east of England, and in summer 2021 for the rest of England.

“School closures in January 2021 may delay the peak and decrease the total burden in the short term. However, implementation of more stringent measures now with a subsequent lifting of these restrictions in February 2021 leads to a bigger rebound in cases, particularly in those regions that have been least affected so far.

“However, these delaying measures may buy time to reach more widespread population immunity through vaccination. Vaccine rollout will further mitigate transmission, although the impact of vaccinating 200,000 people per week – similar in magnitude to the rates reached in December 2020 – may be relatively small.”

It said vaccinating 2 million people a week was the only scenario which reduced the burden on hospitals and intensive care units below the levels seen during the first wave.

Under tiers 1-3 restrictions only, the study estimated intensive care units would see a peak of 4,750 patients, 162 per cent higher than during the first wave. There would be a total of 118,000 deaths and 426,000 admissions to hospital by 30 June.

Under tier 4 with schools open, there would be 107,000 deaths and 394,000 hospital admissions with more than 3,310 patients in intensive care at the peak.

With tier 4 restrictions and schools closed, the model estimates a total of 102,000 deaths by 30 June.

With 2 million vaccinations a week, the death toll could fall to 35,700.

The study adds: “We note that even tier 4 measures together with closure of educational facilities are less stringent than the measures imposed in March 2020, and therefore it is possible that restrictions beyond tier 4 may be required.”

The scientists accepted there were uncertainties about their predictions as they did not model transmission within hospitals or care homes and changes in the death rate of the virus, which has fallen during 2020 and could fall further or increase if the NHS is overwhelmed.

They added the model involved choices being made which could alter the results and that some issues like the susceptibility of children to the new variant are still being investigated.