Coronavirus: Is the UK testing enough people?

(EPA)

Three months have passed since the World Health Organisation was first made aware, on 31 December 2019, of a previously unknown virus causing pneumonia among patients in the city of Wuhan in eastern China.

Just one month after these first reports, on the 31 January 2020, the first Covid-19 cases were confirmed in the UK, as the virus spread from China to countries across the planet.

Two months after this, the UK is in lockdown and the disease has gone on to infect an estimated 1.7 million people and killed more than 2,300.

The numbers are still climbing.

But unlike many other countries fighting the virus, the UK has not rolled out widespread testing. So are the authorities here doing enough?

1. How have other countries responded to the coronavirus threat?

   The disease has spread to more than 200 countries and territories, killing tens of thousands of people, with the US, Italy and Spain recording more cases and more deaths than China.

   In its efforts to stop the deadly pandemic, the World Health Organisation has told countries to “test, test, test”.

   The world was stunned when China locked down first the entire city of Wuhan, and later the entire province of Hubei, as it sought to contain the virus. Such an enormous quarantine plan had never before been attempted in the modern world, but by the middle of March, Beijing’s decision appeared to be vindicated as cases tumbled rapidly, then stopped.

   South Korea, which was hit early with a cluster of cases, embarked on the world’s most ambitious virus-testing programme ever seen. By the beginning of March, the country was able to test 20,000 people a day and implemented stringent tracing efforts to track down people who had been in contact with those known to be infected.

   To date, South Korea has had 9,887 confirmed cases and 165 deaths, making its death rate 1 per cent, compared to a global death rate of 3.4 per cent.

   In Germany, 70,000 people a day are now being tested for the disease, and the death rate is under 1 per cent. A similar rate has also been seen in Austria where intense testing is underway.

   Even America, which under Donald Trump has been slow to accept the impact of the disease, is now testing more people per capita than the UK.

   Mr Trump even criticised Boris Johnson personally for the UK’s response to the crisis during a televised address this week.

2. How many people are being tested in the UK?

   In the UK, the government has been accused of failing to prepare in the face of incessant warnings, and over the weekend failed to hit its own stated target of testing 10,000 people a day. Fewer than 5,000 individual patients were tested for the disease on Saturday.

   Fewer than 153,000 people have been tested for the virus to date, according to figures released on Wednesday.

   The result is the government is now coming under even greater pressure over current levels of testing, as the UK experienced its biggest day-on-day rise in deaths so far.

   Ministers have said the UK is now aiming to test 25,000 people a day by the middle of April.

3. Why are numbers lower than might be expected?

   Earlier in March, as the UK government pursued its controversial plans to only test people admitted to hospital, delayed closing schools, and banning large gatherings citing concerns over “behavioural fatigue” if too many restrictions came in too early, other countries and global bodies looked on in disbelief.

   When tactics changed later in the month, the UK found itself at the back of a long queue for essential equipment.

   Asked why the UK was only testing around 8,000 people a day while Germany was working on about 70,000 a day, Mr Johnson’s official spokesman said on Monday there have been difficulties in “getting all the equipment they need to conduct these tests at a time when everybody in the world wants them”.

4. What does it mean for health workers?

   The lack of testing equipment in Britain has even meant essential frontline medical staff have been unable to be tested for the virus, resulting in those with Covid-19-like symptoms being forced to self-isolate, when many of them may not in fact have the disease, thereby reducing the already critically low numbers of doctors, nurses and healthcare workers.

   On Wednesday, healthcare leaders warned there still remains “no immediate prospect” of mass NHS staff testing.

   NHS trusts were told earlier this week they may only use up to 15 per cent of any spare testing capacity for NHS staff.

   But Health Secretary Matt Hancock has now scrapped that cap, telling NHS hospital labs to use all spare capacity to test their frontline workers.

5. What is being done to increase testing in the UK?

   The UK is currently working towards a target of testing 25,000 people a day within the next three weeks.

   The 25,000 figure comes despite promises made last week by NHS medical director Professor Stephen Powis who said there would be “hundreds of thousands of tests” a day within the next few weeks.

   Chris Hopson, the chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents NHS trusts, told the Press Association this week maximum testing capacity in the UK was currently “very constrained” and only able to deliver around 13,000 tests per day.

   The focus remains on testing patients in hospital to see if they have Covid-19, rather than the wider public.

   Public Health England (PHE) has also come under fire over its stance on wider testing of members of the public for the virus.

   The organisation has repeatedly said most adults in good health who develop symptoms will fully recover and do not need to be tested.

   However, many scientists disagree and say it is only through widespread testing the UK will be able to emerge from lockdown.

   On Tuesday, former WHO director Professor Anthony Costello criticised the UK's response to the crisis, saying the country does have the capacity to test hundreds of thousands more people.

   He said: “By mass testing, we can detect new outbreaks and there will be much less disruption rather than isolating the whole economy.

   “We have 44 molecular virology labs in the UK. If they were doing 400 tests a day, we would be up to Germany levels of testing (around 70,000 a day) and that is perfectly feasible.”

   He warned a rapid acceleration was the only way for the UK to avoid a painful six months before society “returns to normal”, as the public was warned on Sunday.

   “We must go to mass testing and, when we remove the lockdown, I don’t think it will take six months. All the Asian states — it was six to eight weeks of being able to lift the lockdown,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.