Coronavirus: London seeing ‘tsunami’ of cases but NHS will cope with surge, says top health expert

‘Whilst health system will be in intensely stressed … it won’t break,’ says Professor Neil Ferguson

The NHS will be able to cope with the expected surge in new coronavirus cases if strict lockdown measures continue to be followed, according to the leading epidemiologist who helped change government strategy.

Professor Neil Ferguson – the Imperial College London expert whose work inspired No 10 to adopt draconian social distancing measures – offered an optimistic assessment of the health service’s capacity to manage the rise in Covid-19 patients across the UK.

“We’re going to have a very difficult few weeks, particularly in hotspots [like] London for instance,” Professor told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Thursday.

“But we think overall – with the capacity which is rapidly being put in place across the country – that whilst the health system will be in intensely stressed … it won’t break.”

He added: “We will have enough surge capacity overall as a country to cope with the rapidly growing epidemic we’re seeing at the moment. Perhaps in around three weeks, we hope these current measures will start flattening the curve and start bringing the numbers down.”

Professor Ferguson, who is currently still recovering from Covid-19 himself, told the Commons’ science and technology committee on Wednesday that lockdown measures taken by the Boris Johnson could tip the outbreak from a growing epidemic to a declining epidemic.

“There will be some areas that are extremely stressed but we are reasonably confident – which is all we can be at the current time – that at the national level we will be within capacity.”

It is hoped that once the coronavirus lockdown is lifted the infection can still be kept at manageable levels, Professor Ferguson said.

Appearing via videolink, and drinking from a ‘Keep Calm and Carry On’ mug, he explained: “There will be some resurgence of transmission but the hope is that by employing more focused policies to suppress those local outbreaks, we can maintain infection levels at low levels in the country as a whole indefinitely.”

The expert added that it was “plausible” Covid-19 could behave like other coronaviruses and transmission could be somewhat reduced in the summer months but perhaps not by more than 10 per cent to 20 per cent.

Professor Ferguson said it was clear that the country could not be in lockdown for a year, and that “the long-term exit from this is clearly the hopes around a vaccine”.

Professor Neil Ferguson speaking via video link about the coronavirus outbreak at the Science and Technology Committee (House of Commons/PA)

Chris Hopson, the CEO of NHS Providers – the membership organisation for the health service’s hospitals – offered a more sober assessment of the practical difficulties which lie ahead for doctors and nurses.

He praised London hospitals for expanding their critical care capacity “between five and seven-fold” in recent weeks.

“But they’re struggling with two things,” Mr Hopson told the Today programme on Thursday. “The first is the explosion of demand they are seeing in seriously ill patients. They talk about wave after wave after wave. The word that’s often used to me is a continuous tsunami.

“There is a sense that all that extra capacity they brilliantly created over the last fortnight is now being used up very, very quickly.”

He added: “The second problem that hasn’t been talked about at all is the number of staff who are off sick,” he added. “We’re now seeing 30, 40 and in some places 50 per cent sickness rates – as staff catch the virus … or have to self-isolate.”