Coronavirus: NHS bosses warn hospitals over intensive care demand surge

Health service to hold large-scale simulation to ‘stress test the system’ ahead of a predicted coronavirus surge in coming weeks

NHS hospitals have been told to expect a “several-fold” increase in demand for intensive care beds during a serious coronavirus outbreak.

Professor Keith Willett, NHS England’s incident director for the coronavirus outbreak, told a secret briefing of chief nurses from across the NHS that they needed to prepare now for the unprecedented demand which could overwhelm existing critical care services.

Sources who were in the briefing told The Independent Prof Willett warned the demand was likely to be not just double but “several fold” the existing 4,000 intensive care beds in the NHS.

Prof Willett said the NHS will also be holding large-scale simulations next week for an expected coronavirus surge in an effort to “stress test the system” ahead of rising cases of infection.

If the predictions are right the NHS will likely be forced to cancel large numbers of operations and re-deploy nurses and doctors.

There was confusion about what Prof Willett said, with a number of sources in the room adamant he said “seven times, quite clearly”.

But in a statement to The Independent Prof Willett said: “Categorically, I did not say a seven-fold increase; I said a several-fold increase.”

One source said: “It was an utterly calm and focused talk. He did a lot to reassure us that there was a strategic plan.”

The revelation of intensive care demand comes after doctors and managers in the health service have warned in recent weeks that the NHS will be overwhelmed in the event of a serious coronavirus epidemic.

In Italy doctors have warned 10 per cent of all patients needed intensive care; most young and old patients are experiencing severe pneumonia and complications affecting their heart, blood pressure, kidney and liver.

In February The Independent revealed fears that the weakest patients could be denied life-saving care as doctors will be forced to ration access to intensive care and equipment such as ventilators.

Prof Willett told the nursing directors they needed to prepare their hospitals now and plan for how to use volunteers to free up nurses and other staff to look after sick patients.

Nurses will be redeployed to care for coronavirus patients and given refresher training on treating patients with respiratory conditions like pneumonia.

NHS England will be coordinating a nationwide simulation of demand for intensive care beds next week.

Prof Willett said emergency legislation would be introduced in parliament next week which would include temporary changes in the law to allow patient data to be shared more freely during the crisis, amid concerns different systems used in the health service could delay information being communicated between teams.

He said guidance on treating patients with coronavirus was likely to change with patients not needing to be isolated, adding that nurses should treat the infection no different to patients with seasonal flu.

Earlier in the day NHS England’s chief executive Simon Stevens said around 18,000 third-year nursing students would be invited to work on wards to help care for patients during the peak of the outbreak.

It is understood the government’s emergency legislation next week will also include provision for these nursing students to be registered temporarily along with returning doctors and nurses who may have retired.

It’s understood the nursing students will be paid at a normal nurse’s salary level at a projected cost of more than £50m a month.