Coronavirus: Could London be allowed to ease its lockdown restrictions before the rest of UK?

Health expert warns infection rate could still vary ‘dramatically’ within regions

Research suggesting the UK’s coronavirus infection rate varies significantly in different regions in England has sparked speculation over whether the government could lift lockdown restrictions at different times across the country.

A study by Public Health England and the University of Cambridge‘s MRC Biostatic Unit found the rate of Covid-19 infections (R value) in England was on average 0.75 overall, but varied in different regions.

This was most clear in London, which had an average R value of 0.4 ⁠— meaning for every 10 people who become infected with the virus, four other people will become infected.

Meanwhile, the North East and Yorkshire were reportedly the worst affected areas, with an average R value of 0.8 ⁠— meaning 10 people would pass the virus on to eight other people.

Boris Johnson, the prime minister, has made it clear that the government does not want to lift certain restrictions if doing so would lift the R value above 1, as this would mean the epidemic was no longer in decline.

However, the government could decide to ease restrictions by region, following an approach already taken by France and Spain.

This could mean that London would be able to end its lockdown sooner than other regions, if the University of Cambridge’s research team is correct.

The government’s Covid-19 recovery strategy document did not rule out this possibility earlier this week, as it noted restrictions could be lifted in “some regions before others”.

“A greater risk in Cornwall should not lead to disproportionate restrictions in Newcastle if the risk is lower,” the document said.

On Friday, the prime minister’s spokesperson confirmed this was still an option which was available for the government.

“It could lead to some of the measures being eased at different rates in different parts of the country and at the same time it could lead to some measures being re-imposed in some parts of the country but not in others,” Mr Johnson’s spokesperson said.

Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, told The Independent that the government could lift restrictions in different regions but warned the rate of infections would still vary even within regions.

“Scientifically, there is no reason why you shouldn’t be able to relax restrictions differently across different regions depending on how the disease is progressing in different regions,” Professor Hunter said.

“To a large extent, it may make sense to do that but you’ve got to be a bit cautious about it because even if the Cambridge models are correct, the 0.4 for London will vary dramatically between different parts of London almost certainly.”

Professor Hunter explained the R value was affected by a number of factors, with one of the biggest factors being “population density”.

That would mean the rate of infection is likely to be higher in urban areas, and particularly in poorer areas, where people tend to live closer together and have to use public transport, such as the London Underground, to travel to work.

Taking the North West as an example, the professor added: “If you relaxed everything over the region, because on balance we have a low R0 [R value], and then relaxed Manchester, you could potentially have a problem where the epidemic in Manchester starts accelerating again and seeding infections in areas around the city”.

Therefore, lifting restrictions on whole regions based on their R value may not be a safe or effective route out of lockdown.

Professor Hunter also noted that the effect of the government’s slight easing of the lockdown on Sunday had not been seen yet and could cause the R value to rise again in the capital.

It will take a couple of weeks to determine whether Mr Johnson’s call for more people to return to work has significantly increased the rate of infections across England.

Dr Thomas House, a reader in mathematical statistics at the University of Manchester, warned the Cambridge research should not be used for forecasting the R value in the coming weeks as lockdown measures had now changed.

“Due to the delays between onset of Covid and death, and the fact that government measures have recently changed with effects on R that remain to be seen, these results are not intended to be used for forecasting,” Dr House said.

“It is not the case that we can tell from this data that the number of new cases in London is down to 24 ⁠— this was modelling fitted to deaths and predictions will change due to the changes announced last Sunday.”

Similarly, Professor Sheila Bird, a former programme leader for Cambridge’s MRC Biostatistics Unit, said attempts to use the research to predict what the R value could be in June were “premature”.