Coronavirus death rate rises in England for first time since pandemic peak

Age-standardised mortality rate increases from 7.2 per 100,000 people in August to 12.6 in September

The death rate for coronavirus patients in England has increased for the first time since the peak of the pandemic, new figures show.

The age-standardised mortality rate due to Covid-19 was 12.6 per 100,000 people in September, up from 7.2 the month before, according to the Office for National Statistics.

This is the first such increase since April, the ONS said.

The figure is still significantly lower than the peak of the pandemic, when it stood at 623.2 deaths per 100,000 people, the data showed. 

Coronavirus did not feature in the 10 leading causes of death for people in England or Wales throughout September.

In England, Covid-19 was the 19th most common cause of death, and in Wales it was 24th.

The ONS said: “In September 2020, the number of deaths and mortality rate due to Covid-19 remained significantly below levels seen in March 2020 – the first month a Covid-19 death was registered in England and Wales.

“However, the mortality rate due to Covid-19 was significantly higher in England in September 2020 compared with the previous month, August 2020. 

“This is the first increase in the mortality rate for deaths due to Covid-19 from one month to the next since April 2020.”

Of the 39,827 deaths registered in September in England, 1.7 per cent (690) involved coronavirus, and in Wales the figure was 1.3 per cent of the 2,610 deaths (35).

Meanwhile, the R rate for the UK is estimated to have fallen to between 1.2 and 1.4, according to the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage).

This means that, on average, every 10 people who test positive for coronavirus will go on to infect between 12 and 14 more people.

The R rate has decreased from the previous range of 1.3 to 1.6.

The latest growth rate range, which reflects how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day, is estimated to be between plus 3 per cent and plus 6 per cent.

If the growth rate is greater than 0, then the epidemic is growing. If the growth rate is less than 0, then the epidemic is shrinking.

Sage cautioned that “there is still widespread growth of the epidemic across the country”.

It added that it’s these “estimates represent the transmission of Covid-19 over the past few weeks due to the time delay between someone being infected, having symptoms and needing healthcare”.

Separate estimates released by the ONS on Friday also showed that there was an average of 35,200 new cases per day in private households in England between 10 and 16 October, up from 27,900 for the previous week.

This means one in 130 people are estimated to have tested positive for the virus in the week up to 16 October.

These figures do not include people staying in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings.

The ONS added that there has been growth in the Covid-19 infection rate in all age groups over the past two week, including those aged over 70 years.

The highest rates were recorded in older teenagers and young adults (from school year 12 through to age 24) and secondary school-aged children (school years 7 to 11).

There has also been a rise in the estimated percentage of the population testing positive for coronavirus in most regions over the last two weeks, with the exception of the southwest, the ONS said.

A total of three regions have positivity rates above 1 per cent – the northeast, northwest and Yorkshire and the Humber. 

While the rates in the northwest and Yorkshire and the Humber continue to grow, the trend in the northeast was showing early indications of a levelling off, but with a rate over 1 per cent.

The new figures come after Professor John Edmunds, a member of Sage, said that the idea that “we can carry on as we are” and have a normal Christmas “is wishful thinking in the extreme”.

He said that “radical action" would be needed to stem the rise in coronavirus cases, particularly in regions with high incidence of the virus. 

Previously Stephen Barclay, chief secretary to the Treasury, said he hoped families would be able to spend Christmas together even if things are not exactly the same. 

In response, Prof Edmunds, who told MPs on Wednesday that tens of thousands of deaths could occur during the second wave of the pandemic, said this would only be viable if further measures are brought in to bring cases down.

“The only way that we can have a relatively safe and normal Christmas is if we take radical action now to reduce incidence – at the very least in high incidence areas – and keep the incidence low across the country by implementing a package of measures to reduce social contacts,” he said.

Additional reporting by Press Association