Cancer figures ‘are a wake-up call’ to coronavirus’s effect on NHS

Urgent referrals have dropped by 60 per cent, new figures show

A dramatic drop in the number of urgent cancer referrals coupled with soaring waiting times for treatment due to the Covid-19 pandemic could lead to an already “hollowed-out” NHS being overwhelmed in the coming months, top clinicians have warned.

Medics suspect that fears over catching the novel disease, along with concerns about overburdening NHS staff, meant that far fewer people had sought medical help for potential cancer symptoms in the past two months.

A total of 79,573 urgent cancer referrals were made by GPs in England in April 2020, down from 199,217 in April 2019, newly released NHS figures reveal – a fall of 60 per cent.

Meanwhile, Macmillan Cancer Support estimates that around 9,000 people might not have had their cancer diagnosed in April and therefore not been referred for treatment.

“It’s devastating to see the impact that Covid-19 is having on cancer patients and these figures show just how much the virus has affected cancer waiting times,” said Sarah Woolnough, Cancer Research UK‘s executive director of policy and information.

“The dramatic fall in the number of urgent referrals and the drop in people receiving treatment on time in April is hugely concerning. It means that tens of thousands of patients are in a backlog needing vital cancer care.”

The number of people in England who had to wait a maximum of two months from GP referral to first treatment for cancer was also down 20 per cent, from 13,519 in April 2019 to 10,792 in April 2020.

Cancer patients who missed out on vital diagnoses, tests and treatments could see their chances of survival reduced, doctors fear.

Earlier this week The Independent revealed how more than a million laboratory samples from cancer screening services are expected in pathology labs, while as many as 850,000 delayed CT and MRI scans need to be carried out.

But 97 per cent of labs do not have enough pathologists to carry out the work. Staff are already working unpaid hours to tackle the existing backlog, which could mean conditions such as cancer are found only when it’s too late to treat them.

Thursday’s figures also revealed that the number of NHS patients waiting more than 18 weeks for treatment has now risen above 1.3 million – up from 860,309 in March – the highest number since January 2008.

“Today’s figures are a wake-up call,” said Dr Rebecca Fisher, a senior policy fellow at the Health Foundation. “Early diagnosis and treatment of cancer saves lives, but 60 per cent fewer people with suspected cancer were urgently referred to a specialist in April.

“More needs to be done to ensure people with cancer and other serious health conditions get the treatment they need, to avoid storing up worse health problems for the future.”

Hundreds of thousands of patients waiting for routine surgery, as well as cancer treatment, means the NHS has a mountain to climb in reducing hospital waiting lists, said one doctor.

“The NHS has coped incredibly well with the immediate Covid crisis, but to do so it had to hollow out its routine, but essential, work to keep people well,” said Professor Derek Alderson, president of the Royal College of Surgeons.

“It is going to be a herculean task to get through what we believe is a double-whammy backlog. There are those on the list already, and then thousands of patients who will come forward and be added to the list when the pandemic begins to abate.”

Prof Alderson added: “That means we need government support to keep as much capacity as possible in the NHS, including by continuing to have public contracts with the independent sector so that patients are seen because they need treatment, not because they can pay.”

Dr Nick Scriven, former president of the Society for Acute Medicine, said: “We really do fear for the health service over the remainder of the year given the increasing evidence of the mishandling of the pandemic and as yet scarce sign of any meaningful recovery plan.

“The numbers of patients seeking urgent care has been well below what we would expect for this time of the year. More than 50 per cent of patients are waiting more than six weeks for a diagnostic test and, combined with the postponement of much planned treatment, it is a potent mix.

“This could have significant consequences for both patients and hospitals as we adapt to the pressures of Covid and Covid-free working.”

The Independent has contacted the Department of Health for comment. An NHS spokesperson previously said, in response to a story about delayed diagnostics: “Cancer services are largely now open, ready and able to receive all patients who need care, so the critical point is that anyone who is concerned about a possible cancer symptom should contact their GP practice and come forward for a check-up.”