Lower birth rates may be good for the planet but an older population has its own problems

Analysis: Women in more than half of countries do not give birth to enough babies to sustain population levels

In most cases falling birth rates is a success story – driven by falling rates of child mortality and access to contraception (Getty/iStock)

The Duke of Sussex, Prince Harry, has announced he and his wife Meghan will have a maximum of two children. The latest research shows many people in the UK are singing from the same hymn sheet, with birth rates falling to their lowest level since records began in 1938.

According to new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) there were 657,076 live births in 2018, a decrease of 3.2 per cent since 2017. Total fertility – which is the average number of children a woman gives birth to – fell to 1.7 in England and Wales.

This gradual decline is in keeping with what has been happening in most high income countries since the late 1970s.

In most cases a falling birth rate is a success story, where it is driven by falling rates of child mortality and more access to contraception.

Women are also choosing to start a family later in life and have longer working careers, which means they are more likely to struggle with fertility and will have a smaller family as a result.

Since the turn of the century there has been a long-term fall in fertility rates for women under 20 years old.

Since 2004 women between 30 and 34 have had the highest fertility rate of any group. Previously it had been women between 25 to 29 years old.

Birth rates have been in the news this year as a growing number of women join the BirthStrike movement and pledge not to have children because of climate breakdown. However, this is unlikely to have made any impact on national statistics.

Allan Pacey, professor of andrology from the University of Sheffield, said the latest ONS report shows that “economy and education are the best contraceptive”.

“I am certain that this largely reflects the individual decisions by women and their partners about whether or not to have children – and if so how many – rather than an existential fertility crisis due to pollution, climate or Brexit,” he said.

It may be good for the environment but low birth rates are likely to leave the UK and other countries with difficult economic and social challenges in the coming years.

When the birth rate drops below 2.1 populations start to shrink. In the 1950s no nations were below the replacement level – the amount of fertility needed to keep the population the same from generation to generation – but now more than half of countries are.

The population will become increasingly top-heavy, with a large elderly population and smaller working population to support them.

This research is the latest sign these challenges will become increasingly critical in the years to come.