Austerity and flu deaths leave UK life expectancy lagging behind other countries, says new research

Study of mortality rates exposes ‘remarkable’ gender differences in death rates across wealthy nations

The UK is one of the worst performing countries for mortality rates, according to the Longevity Science Panel (PA)

Public-sector austerity and winter flu have had a negative impact on life expectancy, leaving the UK lagging behind other wealthy nations, a new study has found.

Out of 16 countries, the UK, Spain and Germany performed worst, according to the Longevity Science Panel.

Women were particularly badly affected, with slower-than-expected improvements in mortality rates across 14 countries during 2011-15, compared with just eight countries where the same was true for men.

However, Scandinavian countries have bucked the trend and showed better improvements in mortality rates than had previously been expected.

Using statistical models based on trends dating back to the 1960s, the panel of experts, set up by insurer Legal & General to monitor trends in population life expectancy, found that more people were dying than would be expected if earlier trends had continued.

The report said the gender differences were “remarkable”, adding: “This observation is consistent with suggestions that austerity measures in response to the 2008 recession, and excess winter deaths such as the unusually high 2014-15 winter deaths, have adversely affected mortality trends.”

It said austerity and flu deaths would exacerbate existing trends in obesity, diabetes, heart disease and dementia.

“Disadvantaged groups may be impacted more, increasing their mortality rates disproportionally such that overall mortality improvements are stalled. As women are notably affected more than men in our analyses, we suggest that austerity has disproportionately impacted women in these countries.”

The argument that austerity in the UK had affected women more than men was backed up, it said, by House of Commons Library research in 2017, which found that 86 per cent of the burden of spending cuts since 2010 had fallen on women.

For younger people, between 25 and 50, the results were more mixed.

The UK, the US, the Netherlands, Australia, Canada, Germany and Sweden all saw slower improvements between 2011 and 2015 compared with the preceding decade, but countries including Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Japan and Portugal saw better performance.

Panel member Professor Debora Price, from the University of Manchester, said: “The gender issues highlighted by this report are very concerning and we need urgently to understand what is driving these. We know that austerity policies have fallen mostly on women – could this be part of the explanation for higher-than-expected deaths?”

Prof Steven Haberman, from Cass Business School, said: “Within the UK, there is also worrying evidence of widening gaps between the trends for the better-off sections of society compared to the more deprived.

“We should expect continuing volatility in mortality rates as the population ages, and with the increasing likelihood of more extreme weather events such as heatwaves and cold snaps.”

Between 1991 and 2011, life expectancy at birth for males in England and Wales grew by almost five years and by more than four years for women. In 2015, a sharp spike in the number of deaths, especially among older people, resulted in an unprecedented fall in life expectancy in England and across several European countries.

The panel’s report concluded that the slowdown in mortality-rate improvement was not unique to the UK.

It said: “Six of the largest EU countries (France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, UK) saw a fall in life expectancy for both men and women between 2014 and 2015, with female life expectancy at birth falling in 23 of the 28 EU countries, while male life expectancy at birth fell in 16 EU countries.”

It added that in Scandinavia, where improvements were better than expected, “these countries were less affected by austerity and were among the five countries least affected by the 2014-15 excess winter deaths. So, our results are consistent with the suggestion that austerity and excess winter deaths are linked to the recent slowdown in mortality improvement.”

An NHS England spokesperson said: "This is yet more evidence that our country’s ageing population and the increasing rates of dementia and frailty, combined with avoidable lifestyle illnesses like Type 2 diabetes and some heart diseases, are causing significant harm and putting more pressure on the NHS.

“Fortunately, cancer survival rates are at a record high, while new models for stroke care are saving more lives, and the NHS is spotting and stopping killer diseases through the NHS long term plan, including expanding our world-leading talking therapies programme and our diabetes prevention programme as well as offering stop smoking services to all pregnant women."

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “We want everyone to have five extra years of healthy, independent life by 2035. Reducing health inequalities is at the heart of the NHS long term plan, backed by an extra £33.9 billion in cash terms a year by 2023-24 and we are committed to ensuring everyone gets excellent healthcare no matter where they live.

“Recent UK trends in life expectancy can also be seen in a number of countries across Europe, North America and Australia. Our recent Prevention Green Paper signalled a new approach for the health and care system, putting prevention at the centre of all our decision-making."