Few survive the roller-coaster

THE HOWARTH DEFECTION

STEVE BOGGAN

Winston Churchill said it was better to change your mind than be wrong all the time. He was possibly the most famous turncoat of the 20th Century, switching from Tory to Liberal in 1904, and later switching back again.

When he jumped ship to the Liberals, he admitted he had "ratted" on the Conservatives. When he defected back, he famously announced he was "re- ratting".

There have been about 70 defections in the past 60 years, but Alan Howarth's is thought to be the first from Conservative to Labour. Defections in the other direction are rare but not unknown. Reg Prentice defected from Labour, with whom he had served as a Cabinet minister, to the Tories in 1977 and went on to hold office in a Conservative government.

The largest single defection came in 1981 when 27 Labour MPs, led by David Owen and Bill Rodgers, formed the SDP with one Conservative MP, Christopher Brocklebank-Fowler.

Many of the founders discovered that defection spelled a premature end to their political careers - particularly for the leaders. Mr Brocklebank- Fowler was ejected by his Tory constituency at the next general election and never recovered politically.

Bruce Douglas-Man took a principled stance and agreed to fight a by- election as an SDP candidate but lost to the Conservatives in June 1982.

Most defectors appear to come unstuck. Only a few - like Churchill - have ridden the political rollercoaster with aplomb.

John Horam, one of the original defectors from Labour to the SDP, had served as a transport minister in James Callaghan's Cabinet. He left his SDP seat in 1983, surfaced again as a Tory supporter in 1987 and won the safe seat of Orpington in 1992. Last March he was made Public Service and Science minister.

Although politically devastating for John Major on the eve of the Tory Party conference, the effects of the defection on the alignment of parties is likely to be short-term, according to the political historian Professor Peter Hennessey.

"I don't think we will see radical change coming from this," he said.

"We won't see a more right wing, nationalist, anti-European breakaway group emerging to counter the defection and we won't see a group following Alan Howarth.

"Ultimately, it takes more than the principled stance of a kind, understated, gentlemanly scholar like Alan Howarth to shift the tectonic plates of British politics."