Election according to Mondeo land

This conference season, the political parties have been concentrating on a relatively small number of middle-class, middle-England voters whom they believe will decide who wins the next election. Tony Blair told the story of how in 1992 he met a Midlands man washing his Sierra who convinced him that Labour was no longer the party of the aspirational classes. These days, they are as likely to be Mondeo man, or Granada woman, but are they convinced by Blair's new Labour party? Michael Streeter went to Redditch to meet the Mondeo people who will form The Independent's election panel. We shall return to them again as the General Election approaches to see how they respond to each of the politicians.

Redditch may not seem a fashionable town, but for the election strategists it is a critical battleground.

This new constituency, carved out of mid-Worcestershire, has a notional Conservative majority of 3,000 and Labour needs a swing of just over 3 per cent to take a seat they must win if they are to have a realistic chance of forming the next government.

In the 1992 local elections, Conservatives polled 48.07 per cent of the vote in local elections; Labour 41.95 per cent and the Liberal Democrats just under 10 per cent. This May, Labour gained 55 per cent against only 26 per cent for the Conservatives.

The tree-lined wards of Matchborough and Winyates are crucial areas filled with many of the skilled workers the parties are fighting over.

This is where The Independent panel live in their own houses, owning decent cars and holding down good jobs.

Some are already lost to the Tories, it seems. The memory of unemployment, perceived health cuts and once-high interest rates are still too strong. Education, too, is seen as a key factor, but Europe was hardly mentioned as an issue.

Mark Redfern, 29, is an engineer, married with his own semi-detached house. Unlike Tony Blair's Midlands voter of 1992 - whose decision to vote Tory convinced the current leader that that poll was lost - he drives a Ford Granada. He has always voted Tory and describes himself as "one of Thatcher's children", but will not vote Conservative next time.

"I cannot afford to be a Tory any more, they are taxing me to the hilt.

"My wife, Jane, is expecting again and is having to give up her job because we can't afford the child care."

Mr Redfern says he is impressed by Mr Blair and is prepared to give him his vote.

Indeed, none of the 12, all Conservative sympathisers in the past, say they are sure they will vote for John Major next time.

Adrian Blick, a 30-year-old self-employed builder who owns a Sierra, will also switch his vote to Labour.

During the recession, he almost lost his home and the pressure caused him and his then fiancee to split.

"I feel let down by the Tories," he says. Although not personally keen on New Labour, Mr Blick thinks the country needs a change. "I would rather pay slightly higher taxes to know there will be a bed for me in the hospital."

Denise Sparkes, a dressmaker who has two young children and owns a Nissan Micra, is angry with the Tories, for whom she voted in 1992, but is not sure that she will vote for Mr Blair.

Ms Sparkes wants to hear more definite policies, first on the areas she feels most strongly about - health and education, recurring themes among The Independent dozen.

She liked Mr Major's conference speech but along with most of the group, says she is not really influenced by party conferences and is more interested in detailed policy.

"They are just beauty parades, just for show," she says.

One definite defector to Labour is Linda Middleton, 41, who works in a supermarket and owns her own Ford car.

One of her sons has just gone to university and she feels students get less now than ever before. She adds: "What is happening to the NHS is also terrifying."

She could not have voted for Neil Kinnock's Old Labour, liked John Smith's the best, but will still vote for Mr Blair, whom she applauds for distancing the party from the unions.

Susan Lovett, 38, a former sales consultant with two children, lives in a smart house and drives a Ford Granada. A Tory voter in 1992, now she is not so sure and regards Mr Major as "too weak".

However, she has yet to be persuaded that Mr Blair can produce the concrete policies on education, the NHS, law and order and Europe that she wants. If he does not, she will "probably" vote Conservative again.

Andrew Osciak, 45, a toolmaker, also sees crime as a big issue. After giving Mr Major his vote last time, he says he is now in two minds. But neither is he impressed by Mr Blair, whom he feels has not been positive enough to persuade him to vote Labour, as he once did in the past.

Steven Marriott, 28, a radio frequency engineer, who drives a Montego, says he would have voted for Margaret Thatcher had he been old enough, but voted Liberal Democrat in protest at the last election.

A period of unemployment and time spent on training schemes of "no benefit", turned him away from Mr Major, whom he regards as too weak. But he is also worried that Labour may have a hidden agenda and would prefer Mr Blair to be "more honest" about his intentions on taxation and the economy.

Lionel Baird, 52, a paramedic who drives a Renault 19, does not know if he will vote Tory again and is worried about the investments he has made to safeguard his future. Mr Baird is unhappy at the state of the NHS and believes that Mr Blair has modernised the Labour Party, but says in the end he will vote for whoever will best secure economic growth and stability.

The Liberal Democrats also won plaudits from our group, but many view them as too weak and unlikely to form the next government.

As the views of those above and the rest of the panel change, The Independent will bring them to you, in the run-up to an election which will determine the British government for the next millennium.

The message so far is clear: while many may not vote Tory again, Mr Blair's New Labour is not guaranteed their vote either.

The battle has begun.

I cannot afford to be a Tory, they are taxing me to the hilt Mark Redfern

I feel let down by the Tories - the country needs a change

Adrian Blick

I will vote Tory unless Mr Blair can produce concrete policies Susan Lovett

Mr Blair has not been positive enough to make me vote Labour

Andrew Osciak

I'd prefer Labour to be more honest on tax and economy Steven Marriott

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I will vote for whoever will secure growth in the economy Lionel Baird