Election '97: Bookies keep the odds on Blair

As the election campaign sweeps past the halfway post, the smart betting money is on Tony Blair cantering past the winning post.

Bookmakers report that betting on Conservatives showed an upsurge after last Thursday's MORI poll showed them gaining six points while Labour fell by the same amount. But "serious money wagers" are still on heavily for Labour.

This view is backed up by broadcaster and pundit of the turf John McCririck, who has abandoned his lifelong Conservative allegiance to become a fervent new Labour backer. Having a punt on the Opposition makes both financial and political sense for Mr McCririck who said: "You would have to be an absolute mug to bet on John Major winning. He is clapped out, finished, and so is his party. I have never voted Labour in my life, but I am going to now."

An Essex woman from Ilford has placed the biggest single bet of the election so far: pounds 95,000 on Labour winning the election and Glasgow Rangers lifting the Scottish Premier League.

A Sheffield man, a first time better, placed exactly pounds 11,467.89 on a Labour win. William Hill give him odds of 1/6.

Overall, bookmakers estimate pounds 10m will be bet by the end of the election campaign. Managing such a lucrative and fluid operation is a complex political and statistical affair, and a far cry from the world of the tic-tac men on the racecourses.

Political betting teams at bookmakers are in constant liaison with an array of politicians, academics, statisticians, and lobbyists. Intelligence gathering is seen as the key to success.

At Ladbrokes the information and analysis is channelled through Simon Clare. He said: "We are not dealing with racing punters here but with intelligent and well-read customers. Our back room expertise must cater for that. I am in contact with two university academics and we employ a firm of lobbyists. We need to know about internal polls, or even internal gossip. We also carry out polls ourselves. I think sometimes our reports are more accurate than the pollsters'."

David Brown, who heads the political betting department at William Hill, said: "I have been doing this for 10 years, and intelligence is the key. I am in constant touch with my contacts at national and local level. We also keep in touch with political analysts, and people who study the psychology of the electorate".

The IG Index spread betting organisation yesterday presented a graph showing a " credibility gap" between opinion polls. Although pollsters put a Labour percentage lead in the high 20s, implying an overall 300 seats, the IG analysis indicate a majority of 101, translating to a 10 per cent lead.

Yesterday William Hill were offering 1/6 Labour, 7/2 Conservatives, and 250-/1 Liberal Democrats. Ladbrokes had cut their odds on a Tory victory to 7/2 from 4/1 .