New Labour, new bombshell

Tony Blair's bold declaration this week of a new target of half a million more students in further and higher education by 2002 came as a surprise, not least to the universities and colleges who will be expected to provide the growth.

Less than a week previously, David Blunkett, Secretary of State for Education and Employment, had cautiously told the education select committee of his hope that the proportion of 18- to 21-year-olds in higher education might be "eased" up over the next five years to around 35 per cent from 32 per cent at present.

A fortnight ago, higher education minister Baroness Blackstone had asked for restraint from vice-chancellors eager to see the cap on full-time undergraduate numbers lifted, in line with Sir Ron Dearing's recommendations. The Government's fees proposals would allow it to provide extra places over time, she told the Glasgow conference of the Committee of Vice-Chancellors and Principals, but "in the meantime I think it would be right to give greater priority to quality and infrastructure problems before embarking on large-scale expansion again."

But if education ministers have reservations over resuming expansion in universities and colleges, they have clearly not told the Prime Minister. His pledge of 500,000 extra students in the system by the end of this parliament represents an increase of 10 per cent on the current total of around 5 million students - made up of 1.6 million in higher education and almost 3.5 million in further education.

The target, announced at Labour's Brighton conference the day before yesterday's education debate, provided a neat deflection to expected criticism over planned tuition fees. Only by charging for tuition, the Government's argument goes, can funds be found for wider access to higher education. Opposing fees, therefore, equals a wish to preserve university access for a privileged minority.

Despite the ambition of Blair's expansion pledge, it appears that, as yet, there is little detail over how it can be achieved. On the day of the announcement, Department for Education and Employment officials could shed little light on the matter. The target was a new one, and the department would be making further announcements, said a spokeswoman.

Baroness Blackstone, speaking at a CVCP conference fringe debate yesterday, said it was "far too early to say" how the extra students would be split between further and higher education. The government wanted to hear from both sectors, though she personally predicted growth in part-time study as learning patterns changed.

Sources close to Mr Blunkett would say only that the expansion would involve both the higher and further education sectors. Education union leaders at the conference remarked that there appeared to have been little communication between the Prime Minister and his education team over the new target.

Universities and colleges are equally in the dark. Further education colleges, like universities, are wrestling with a cap on funded student numbers, imposed at the start of this academic year. The freeze set in after the Conservative government withdrew a pot of money set aside for expansion in colleges, worth around pounds 100m last year. Far from taking on more students, the further education sector, which has grown by a third since 1992, is currently expecting to contract slightly in 1998-9.

The only extra funding on the horizon so far is cash from the windfall tax-funded New Deal, under which 18- to 24-year-olds unemployed for six months will be able to choose from four employment and training options. However, only a minority of the 150,000 young people currently in that category are expected to opt for full-time further education. Mr Blair's expansion target will require other sources of students than this.

There could be more hope for colleges, however, with the publication of a life-long learning white paper later this year. The paper, which will also set out the Government's plans for higher education, should clarify how income from tuition fees will be used. Mr Blunkett, a former lecturer at Barnsley College and a strong supporter of further education, has made clear the extra revenue will go to further as well as higher education.

There can be no more expansion in colleges simply through efficiency savings, according to the Association of Colleges. Director of FE development Dr John Brennan said: "More savings would produce nothing except more chaos and threaten the viability of individual institutions and ultimately the quality of the provision."

The AOC calculates that at current rates, a 10 per cent expansion of student numbers along the lines Mr Blair proposes would require an extra pounds 1.5bn - a 10th of annual funding for universities and colleges.

Universities, meanwhile, needed pounds 350m extra next year just to maintain quality and begin work on moves to widen access and improve infrastructure recommended in the Dearing report. They are to receive pounds 165m - enough to fend off any decline in quality but not to expand. They, too, will await with great interest details of how the Prime Ministers' dream of half a million new students - almost 1 per cent of the population - will be realised.

Lucy Ward and Fran Abrams

The View from Here is back next week