Minister admits student numbers may drop as £3,000 tuition fees bite

The Higher Education minister has admitted there could be a dip in student numbers this year.

The record surge in applications last summer - said to be an attempt by students to beat the introduction of top-up fees of up to £3,000 this autumn - makes it difficult to sustain the increases of the past few years. That would not be seen as good news for the Government's attempt to reach its target of getting 50 per cent of young people into higher education by the end of the decade.

However, Bill Rammell, the Higher Education minister, is confident that any fall-out will be reversed in 2007. "I think it is foolhardy to make predictions," he said. "However, in 1998 when tuition fees initially came in there was a one-year dip, and that might happen again this time with the introduction of variable fees. What I am confident about is that over the long term you will see a continuing increase."

Ministers' fears of a fall in student numbers was reinforced yesterday by a report suggesting that the number of teenagers applying for university places for this year had fallen by up to 13 per cent at some institutions. The unpublished figures, produced by the Universities and Colleges Admissions Services (Ucas) and obtained by The Sunday Times, showed an aggregate 5 per cent drop in applications from all sixth-formers.

Mr Rammell said he believed the Government's package of support for students - under which the poorest would receive a £2,700 grant plus bursaries from universities which could take their aid up to as much as £6,000 a year - would convince most youngsters it was worth opting for university. "Even if there is a fall-off - and it's too early to say yet - that doesn't necessarily mean young people are deciding not to go to university," he said. "It may just be because of the surge in numbers last year. People who would have left it until this year to apply tried to get in last autumn."

This year will be one of major change for universities. From the autumn, all but a handful will be charging the maximum of £3,000 a year for all courses.

The other major innovation in higher education will take place in the spring when the Government makes its official response to its consultations on moving towards a system of young people applying to university after receiving their A-level results. Initial soundings among vice-chancellors show some reservations, but Mr Rammell wants to see change - first towards a system where a quota of places are reserved until after the results are published, and then towards a full system of post-qualification application.

Meanwhile, Boris Johnson will be launching his career as Conservative spokesman for higher education. He is expected to preside over a U-turn in policy, with the new party leader, David Cameron, ditching the policy of opposition to top-up fees. He believes it would be too severe a financial penalty for universities if a Tory administration were to cut off this method of funding.