Marking was 'an accident waiting to happen'

The Tomlinson inquiry into the marking of this summer's A-levels made three important findings, relating to the marking of scripts in 12 subjects, the AS-level exam system and the pressure on boards to readjust the grade boundaries.

The introduction of the new exam

"The evidence suggests overwhelmingly that there is no clear, consistent view among awarding bodies' officials [the exam boards] and many examiners and teachers about the standard required at AS and A2 [work done in the second year of the sixth-form] unit levels in order to ensure that the overall GCE A-level standard is maintained.

"This clearly has created a risk that differing interpretations of the two standards exist. AS units were piloted on a limited basis. A2 units were not, for reasons I have not had time to ascertain.

"Therefore, before this summer, there was no practical experience or relevant scripts to aid the grading process or to illuminate the challenges of the new grading process across the GCE A-level as a whole. This resulted, in part, from the speed of implementation of the policy as determined by ministers.

"Evidence has been offered to me that not all the practical and statistical issues implied by the new system had been fully and comprehensively understood and worked through at critical stages in the development and implementation process by the Department for Education and Skills, the Qualifications and Curriculum Authority and examining boards. The evidence put to me suggests there may be a lack of consistency in practices across the three English awarding bodies in the grading process."

Pressure on boards to mark down

"All three chief executives of the English awarding bodies reported to me that the chairman of the QCA [Sir William Stubbs] had made clear to them what he expected of the awarding bodies this summer in relation to the grading of GCE A-levels.

Their perception was that they were being asked to give more emphasis than perhaps was proper to statistical data and the need to have an overall outcome similar to the 2001 legacy A-levels. "There is evidence that in more than one board there was a perception articulated by chairs of examiners during awarding meetings that there was pressure being brought to bear for the candidates' results in their subjects to be close to those for the 2001 legacy A-levels.

"The chairman of QCA is clear that at the meeting [on 26 July with exam boards], he sought reassurance from the awarding bodies that their awarding processes had maintained the standard.

"He also indicated that it might be necessary to inquire into the standard which had been applied. I am clear this is a wholly proper position for the chairman to take in his role as regulator. The chief executives, however, had different perceptions of the implications of this approach ... They all believed they were being put under further pressure.

"For instance, the internal note from Edexcel representatives reported to their chief executive that in their view, 'Sir William Stubbs was not pleased with these outcomes [the marks that were emerging at that stage]' and that he 'indicated that if we went ahead with these predicted outcomes he would announce an independent inquiry into the awarding bodies and the Curriculum 2002 results'. Statements to me from the relevant chief executive in the course of my inquiry confirm this was interpreted within Edexcel as a threat."

Conclusions

"I recommend that students' marked work in some A2 units in some subjects, where changes to grade boundaries appear to be out of line with historical patterns for the legacy A-level is re-graded and their overall GCE A-level grade adjusted if necessary.

"From the evidence collected, it appears the alleged problem with the grading process this summer has its roots in decisions made by the DfES and QCA about the structure of the AS and A-level awards, the assessment model and the preparation for the introduction of the new arrangements, particularly for A2.

"The lack of a common understanding of the standard associated with AS and A2 units ... played a significant part in the problems experienced by the three examination boards during grading this year.

"In relation to the grading process, there is no doubt in my mind that to varying extents the three chief executives [of the exam boards] felt or perceived they were being put under additional pressure to deliver outcomes largely in line with the performance of students in 2001. At the root of this is a longstanding misunderstanding of the difference between maintaining a standard and the proportion of candidates meeting that standard and hence deserving to be awarded a GCE A-level. This misunderstanding appears to exist at almost all levels of the system and in society at large.

"My inquiry has been offered no evidence that ministers offered any guidance on the expected outcomes of this year's A-level examinations. Nor was any present in the notes of meetings between ministers and QCA officers. I therefore conclude that there was no such pressure.

"I am satisfied, based on the evidence available, that the actions of the boards during the grading exercise arose from the pressure they perceived that they were under from the QCA both to maintain the standard and achieve an outcome which was more or less in line with the results in 2001. These two demands are not compatible and even less so this year, given the modular structure of the award."

How the saga unfolded

1 September: A-level results are questioned after bright pupils complain of U grades in coursework and exams

13 September: Allegations surface that exam boards lowered grades for fear A-levels would appear too easy. Qualifications and Curriculum Authority (QCA) launches inquiry

17 September: A leaked letter reveals that the head of the Oxford, Cambridge and Royal Society of Arts exam board, Ron McLone, lowered grades. He says he did not breach codes of practice

18 September: Heads demand re-grading of 700,000 A-level papers, saying QCA pressured all three main boards into downgrading. Estelle Morris announces disputed scripts will be re-marked

19 September: Ms Morris orders independent inquiry by former chief schools inspector, Mike Tomlinson

20 September: QCA's investigation condemned as whitewash after it finds "no evidence" of grade fixing

22 September: Ms Morris suggests A-levels could be scrapped and replaced with the baccalaureate, angering teaching unions

24 September: Heads of three main exam boards deny grade fixing to Mr Tomlinson

25 September: Sir William Stubbs, head of the QCA, accuses Ms Morris of "fatally compromising" inquiry by instructing exam boards to prepare for re-grading

26 September: Ms Morris denies improper conduct

27 September: Inquiry concludes grading system "an accident waiting to happen" and orders re-grading of thousands of examinations. Sir William sacked after Ms Morris says he has lost confidence of exam boards