Not safe to reopen all schools next week and government ignoring scientific advice, Independent Sage warns

‘Evidence shows government has jumped the gun here,’ former chief scientific adviser says

It is not safe to start reopening all schools next week, a group of independent scientists has warned.

The committee accused the government of not listening to its own scientific advice as it pushes for certain classes to go back to school on 1 June.

In a new report, the Independent Sage group said the proposals risk “a new surge of cases of Covid-19 in some communities”.

The government’s scientific advisory committee, Sage, has modelled the impact of seven different ways schools could reopen, which all result in the “R” rate – or the rate of transmission – increasing, the group said.

“The school reopening scenario chosen by the government is not one of those modelled by Sage making the potential impact of reopening even more uncertain,” the report said. “Robust testing systems are not in place everywhere.”

The committee of independent scientists added: “Additionally, public adherence to social distancing is influenced by trust in the government and its messaging. This trust is increasingly strained.

“We therefore believe that by going ahead with a general school reopening from 1 June, the government is not following the advice of its Sage group.”

Dr Zubaida Haque​, an Independent Sage committee member, said it was “not clear” why the government settled on its proposal – which is to bring reception, year 1 and year 6 classes back on 1 June, as well as to introduce “face-to-face” support for years 10 and 12 from next week.

The plan “isn’t a model that has been modelled for”, the interim director of the Runnymede Trust said at a press conference, adding: “That is a huge concern.”

Schools have been told to plan for a partial return to school from next Monday, although some local authorities – including in Durham and Lancashire – have advised against welcoming more students back on this date.

“There may be some schools that are ready to open on the 1 June, however, speaking to colleagues within schools in inner city areas, they certainly aren’t ready as yet,” Professor Kamlesh Khunti, who sits on the committee, said at a press conference.

“They also have the concerns that have been mentioned because these are in deprived areas with a high proportion of black and minority ethnic teachers and students where the risks are much higher,” the University of Leicester professor said, adding that is why they have made a risk assessment framework for schools to check against before opening.

Sir David King, a former government chief scientific adviser, set up Independent Sage to look at how the UK could work its way out of coronavirus lockdown after the official Sage faced criticism over an alleged lack of transparency.

He claimed the new board was necessary because he feared experts were deferring to ministers.

Speaking about the plans to reopen schools on 1 June, Sir David said: “Whilst we totally understand the imperative to get the nation’s children back in the classroom as soon as it is safe to do so, the evidence clearly shows that the government has jumped the gun here.”

He added: “Crucially we conclude that the best way forward cannot be one size fits all. It requires localised case by case responses to ensure that the risk of flare-ups is kept to a minimum.”​

Boris Johnson’s plans to ease the lockdown will be confirmed on Thursday in an official review that Downing Street expects will give the all-clear for schools to welcome back more students on 1 June – although this plan could change depending on further scientific advice.

The UK prime minister has said it is his “intention” for schools to begin resuming with reception, year 1 and year 6 classes from Monday.

Some students have started going back to school in other countries that have been badly-hit by coronavirus, including France.

“We want children back in schools as soon as possible because being with their teachers and friends is so important for their education and their wellbeing,” a Department for Education spokesperson told The Independent.

“Plans for a cautious, phased return of some year groups from 1 June, at the earliest, are based on the best scientific and medical advice. The welfare of children and staff has been at the heart of all decision-making.”

The spokesperson added: “We have engaged closely with a range of relevant organisations, including the unions, throughout the past ten weeks, including organising for them to hear directly from the government’s scientific advisers, and will continue to do so. We have also published detailed guidance on the protective measures schools should take to reduce the risk of transmission.”

Additional reporting by Press Association