Global growth will fall by a third, says CEBR
Your support helps us to tell the story
From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.
At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.
The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.
Your support makes all the difference.The global economy is likely to remain subdued for the next four years leading to persistent unemployment, economists warn today.
Growth will fall by a third this year, while oil and commodity prices will be at about the same level in 2015 as they are now, according to the independent forecaster, the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
It bleakly predicts that growth will fall from 4.2 per cent to 3 per cent this year, significantly less than the economists' previous prediction in May that it would be 3.5 per cent. Growth will then be sluggish over the next four years, staying at between 3 and 3.6 per cent until 2015, making them the weakest years for world economic growth since 2003, apart from the crisis years of 2008 and 2009.
What growth there is will probably be seen in emerging economies, the CEBR warns. Although growth is forecast to slow in China and India next year, to 7.4 per cent and 7.6 per cent, respectively, they are still predicted to grow much faster than the eurozone or the US. The CEBR thinks both will grow at a rate of below 2 per cent until 2014, with the eurozone forecast to grow below 2 per cent for the entire period.
The CEBR chief executive Douglas McWilliams, who co-wrote the report, said: "The sluggish growth we forecast is likely to mean persistent high unemployment in the developed economies."
However, there may be some consolation for hard-pressed British families, said Mr McWilliams. "The silver lining to this cloud is that the prices of oil and other commodities are likely to be relatively weak for the next five years, putting less downward pressure on living standards than in the past two years."
Join our commenting forum
Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies
Comments