Markets hanging on Fed decision

STOCK MARKETS - THE WEEK IN VIEW

The FT-SE, which tumbled 3.8 per cent last week, is expected to see mixed trading this week ahead of the US Federal Reserve's interest- rate announcement on Tuesday.

A rate increase, well telegraphed by now, is expected to set stocks back only temporarily as investors come around to seeing it as a sign of the Fed's commitment to put the US - and its bull market - on a sound monetary footing.

UK companies likely to get a boost from any rate rise and subsequent dollar strength include exporters and dollar-earners such as Imperial Chemical Industries, Glaxo Wellcome and British Petroleum.

But what if the Fed defies expectations and leaves rates unchanged? That would mean investors have fretted needlessly in recent days about higher borrowing costs and stunted consumer spending and could be met by investor exuberance.

"A quarter point [rise] has been discounted," says John Parrot, head of research at Commercial Union Asset Manage- ment. "If nothing happens, you could see the markets rally quite sharply."

Earnings reports, meanwhile, from a number of house builders, property and construction materials companies such as Blue Circle Industries, Redland and Hepworth are expected to influence trading, as is continuing uneasiness about the looming general election.

"The fundamentals are quite strong, but the election is in the background," said Mr Parrot.

Other UK companies reporting earnings in the days ahead include P&O, Morgan Crucible, Inchcape, Cattles, Travis Perkins, Slough Estates and Barratt Developments.

In Frankfurt, meanwhile, mostly positive earnings figures from top companies including Deutsche Bank, BMW and SAP are expected to drive trading.

"We are awaiting mainly good news," said Wolfgang Sawazki, an analyst at WestLB Research. "Deutsche Bank in particular should do well because of falling bond yields and consolidation in the banking sector."

German dollar-earners to keep an eye on in the wake of the Fed's decision include Daimler-Benz, Bayer and Schering. Also worth watching is Volkswagen, which reported on Friday that operating profits had jumped 77.2 per cent last year, thanks to cost-cutting measures.

Germany's big name car makers have been among the best performing shares on the benchmark DAX Index, boosted by expectations of profit growth. Copyright: IOS & Bloomberg