Smiths' acquisition strategy is unattractive

Prognosis for Gyrus shows promise in the longer term; Dobbies has grown high enough for now

In one of the most bizarre pieces of corporate deal making in recent years, Smiths Group – the sprawling engineering, aerospace and medical supplies conglomerate – bought TI Group for nearly £3bn last year only to declare that it wanted to sell the bulk of the acquired businesses off again. The market has proved remarkably forgiving of the well-liked management, led by Keith Butler-Wheelhouse, but that is unlikely to last if it makes another big mistake. The omens are not good.

The shares were given a little fillip yesterday when Smiths presented some of its latest whizzy products, including tracheostomy tubes and anti-terrorist bio-detection systems. The group is focusing heavily on healthcare and aerospace, where it can grow strongly. Investors might be wisest to focus on the industrial divisions that have been put up for sale. The sealings division, in particular, is weak after a prolonged period of underinvestment by TI. It is exposed to the automotive industry and to the German economy, so trading is poor and margins desperate. To its credit, Smiths has been addressing some of these issues, but it is not an attractive proposition to trade buyers. It is not the best time to be selling given the depressed economic environment.

Smiths planned disposals add up to about a third of the group. Analysts hope they could fetch £1.2bn in total, which will go toward paying off the group's £900m debt pile, largely inherited from TI and which is limiting its room for manoeuvre. Smiths says it is in no hurry to sell, but the shares will deserve a conglomerate discount until it is successful.

And then there is the issue of what Mr Butler-Wheelhouse will do with the proceeds. The aerospace industry is consolidating, and Smiths needs to bulk up, but the big deals are few and far between, and there are plenty of buyers out there. The risk is that Smiths will under-realise the value of its industrial and sealings businesses and go on to overpay for a big aerospace acquisition. The sum of these deals looks certain to dilute earnings, even if management picks the right purchases this time round.

Smiths shares are in demand at the moment, though, and investors have seemed willing to overlook the medium-term dilemmas because of its strong balance sheet and its exposure to the growing US defence industry. Even with gearing at about 100 per cent, the company is having no trouble paying the interest and its businesses are throwing off cash. That'll do for now, given the cautious climate.

But the shares are expensive at more than 1.5 times the next financial year's sales and 14 times earnings. That looks too high given the management's poor track record on acquisitions. Until the company shows some sign of returning the proceeds of disposals to shareholders, the stock is unattractive. Sell.

Prognosis for Gyrus shows promise in the longer term

Gyrus says it is a world leader in the management of tissue using less traumatic techniques. That means keyhole surgery, and Gyrus makes the instruments, the clamps, cutters and sealing devices, that get fed down the tubes during surgery.

The company said yesterday that trading in the first half of the year had been ahead of the market's expectations – something that came as a bit of a surprise to the investors who have been selling the stock in recent weeks. The shares, which have slumped 15 per cent this month, bounced 10p to 235.5p on the news yesterday.

It also scotched rumours that its new cutting and sealing device, which uses electrical current rather than a blade to slice through tissue, has been delayed. In fact, it has been given a CE mark.

Sales, which more than doubled last year, and are set for another 60 per cent increase this year, are going to be £39m to £40m in the six months to June, it said, compared with its broker's expectations of £37.6m.

Crucially, the company has moved towards a positive cash flow position in the past few weeks after a long period of investment. Pre-tax profits, excluding the write-down of goodwill associated with recent big acquisitions, should be £7.4m this year, giving earnings per share of 8.7p. The price-earnings multiple for the year, then, is 27.

That may look expensive, but investors should remember the company has only just broken into profitability proper. The markets are growing strongly, since hospitals in the US are always looking to improve keyhole surgical techniques in an effort to reduce patients' time in valuable beds.

Gyrus is still investing in getting its products out there, and sales and marketing spending will be skewed towards the first half of the year. It is also still giving away its expensive machines, but will increasingly be able to sit back and reap the high margins from sales of the disposables used with its technology.

Growth stocks are still out of fashion, but Gyrus looks a long-term winner.

Dobbies has grown high enough for now

Dobbies Garden Centres expects to make significantly more hay when the sun shines. So far this year it has put in a credible performance, despite fairly dull weather both this month and last.

The company, which operates 17 UK garden centres, said yesterday that sales in the seven-and-a-half months to mid-June were up 10.2 per cent on a like-for-like basis.

In particular, giftware and homewares have sold well while sales of mature plants and plants for the "instant garden" have also been blooming.

It is important to note that the sales figure includes the Christmas trading period when Dobbies benefits from selling Christmas trees and decorations. Even so, the business looks to be ticking over nicely.

In the six months to 30 April, Dobbies made an underlying pre-tax profit of £1.7m, up from £659,000. Adding in a one-off £2.1m profit from a property sale, total pre-tax profits came to £3.8m. Sales came in at £18m, up 51 per cent.

Looking ahead, Dobbies is hoping to have doubled in size by 2007, meaning it will have to open around three new centres a year for the next five years.

Management sounded confident yesterday on the prospects for the current year and said they remained happy with the financial forecasts in the market. Analysts are predicting the garden centre group will make a pre-tax profit of around £3.6m this year, translating to around 26p of earnings.

That puts Dobbies shares, up 15p to 482.5p, on a current year multiple of 18 times, a premium to its larger rival Wyevale which is trading on a multiple of 15 times. While Dobbies' homeware range should help offset any dip in gardening-related products should storm clouds gather, there is no reason to chase the shares at this level.