New Look is worth a second glance

Signs of improved trading make De La Rue one to hold; Amlin looks tasty after lifting forecasts

The fashion retailer New Look has been one of the best- performing shares in the FTSE All Share market this year, soaring more than 50 per cent to 256p showing that investing in stocks with momentum can be very profitable indeed.

That the shares fell at all yesterday, they lost 5p, was due only to the £31.3m sale of 12.5 million shares by founder Tom Singh's family trust. Normally this would be interpreted as a "sell" signal. But Mr Singh is not selling any of his own shares and the sale decision has been made by the trustees, the company says.

So after such a strong run, is there any more still to come?

It certainly looks that way after yesterday's half-year figures, which continued this company's impressive run under its chief executive Stephen Sunnucks. Half-year profits were up 64 per cent to £45m, in line with a trading update in October. The current trading statement showed no let-up with like-for-like sales in the eight weeks to 23 November up 11.4 per cent on the previous year.

The gross margin is up another 0.6 percentage points and although the company is saying this growth may moderate, cost-cutting should help improve the net margin from the current 10 per cent to 13 to 15 per cent.

All this is driving market share with New Look's share of the women's clothing market up at 4.4 per cent from 3.8 per cent last year, according to TNS Fashiontrak. This puts it joint second with Next behind M&S.

How is this all being achieved? The sales growth is coming from a variety of measures including store upgrades, product improvement and supply chain changes. The Project Heartland initiative, which involves the relocation of stores to larger sites, is seeing store sales and profits double. The Project 300 makeover for the smallest stores is also achieving big sales uplifts.

With more profits upgrades for the full year to £86m the shares still trade on a forward price-earnings ratio of less than 10. The high street may slow down but New Look is in the value sector, which should offer some protection, and its cost-saving measures give the company some flexibility. The shares are as good value as the clothes. Buy.

Signs of improved trading make De La Rue one to hold

After delivering two devastating profit warnings this year, the banknote printer De La Rue is starting to look in better shape. The shares jumped 23 per cent to 258p when the company predicted a "significantly" better second half.

The first half was certainly grim. An unusually high number of customers ordered new designs on their banknotes which take longer to prepare than repeat orders. On top of that, customers ordered less of the company's money sorting equipment.

Consequently, pre-tax profits, before exceptional items and goodwill amortisation, slumped to £19.6m in the six months to 28 September from £35.6m a year before.

But the company has taken steps to cut its cost base and is carrying out a restructuring in its banknotes division, that will see 350 jobs go, giving rise to an exceptional charge of £17.7m. Adding that into the mix alongside a small amortisation charge, the company made a loss of £800,000 in the first half compared with a £41.5m profit a year before.

Given the tough times, it is sending the right signals to shareholders – lifting the dividend 4.8 per cent to 4.4p and seeking shareholder approval to increase its share buy-back authority to 14.99 per cent from the current 10 per cent limit.

De La Rue believes its restructuring and the better trading conditions it is seeing will lead to a much better performance in the second half of the year. Cazenove, the company's house broker, predicts profits this year of about £66m.

That puts the shares on a forward multiple of 10. Hardly expensive but they are probably only a hold until there is more evidence that the worst is over.

Amlin looks tasty after lifting forecasts

Amlin, the largest company to trade solely in the Lloyd's insurance market, is benefiting from the upturn in general insurance premiums and is already turning around its fortunes after World Trade Centre claims.

Revising its syndicates' forecasts upwards yesterday, the company said business was booming. Premiums for its Syndicate 2001 were up 52 per cent to £705m to the end of October this year. Underwriting margins are improving, with its loss ratio – the amount it pays out as a proportion of the premiums it collects – down to 13 per cent from 28 per cent last year. Brokers are preparing themselves for year-end earnings upgrades.

But the worry for investors is always that unknown liabilities may be lurking on the books without sufficient provisions to cover them. The profitability of one closed syndicate is deteriorating, for example.

However, Amlin looks well placed to cope, with estimated profits of £38m for 2002 and £66m for 2003. It got its rights issue in early and has been ahead of its competitors in expanding its underwriting capacity. Its business is well spread between reinsurance, motor, aviation, and property with little exposure to asbestosis claims.

The shares were up 2 per cent yesterday at 102.5p, which is 1.6 times net tangible assets. This may look expensive but rising premiums, minimal liabilities and profitable underwriting, should drive them higher. Worth a look.