Stay up to date with notifications from The Independent

Notifications can be managed in browser preferences.

David Prosser: Accentuate the negative

Friday 21 August 2009 00:00 BST
Comments

Your support helps us to tell the story

From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.

At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.

The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.

Your support makes all the difference.

Outlook Day by day, the economic data continues to be patchy. On the one hand, yesterday's public finances were dire. On the other, July's better-than-expected retail sales and an increase in mortgage lending, albeit from a low base, might herald the possibility of sunnier times to come.

Sadly, the latest bad news is likely to have longer-lasting impact than the good. Higher retail sales reflect Britons' higher disposable income right now in an era of lower interest rates and fiscal stimulus, as does higher mortgage lending, in that some of that is down to increased demand.

The public finances, however, can only spell bad news for disposable income. A raft of tax rises, starting with the restoration of VAT to 17.5 per cent this December, is already planned for the next 12 months. If the Chancellor has undercooked his borrowing forecasts, as increasingly looks the case, the tax burden will have to rise even higher.

Given that borrowing is likely to take two parliamentary terms at least to get on top of, there's little prospect of tax cuts any time soon. Britain doesn't seem to have got that message just yet – if it had, retail sales would be falling and almost no one would be taking out a new mortgage.

Join our commenting forum

Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies

Comments

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in