Britain’s borrowing is down but it won’t affect what is shaping up to be a ‘do nothing’ Budget

Analysis: Building a war chest to cope with a no deal Brexit must, says James Moore, be the Chancellor’s priority

Chancellor Philip Hammond will unveil his 2018 Budget a week on Monday (PA)

Some welcome news for a Chancellor whose party seems intent on tipping the economy he runs off an economic cliff: his current account is looking rather better than economists had expected.

The September gap between what he spent and the revenues he took in stood at £4.1bn, compared with £4.8bn last year and the City’s forecast of £4.5bn. The shortfall between April and September stood at £19.9bn, its lowest for 16 years.

There are those who will suggest that this gives him a little extra wriggle room ahead of his forthcoming budget, due a week on Monday.

But the unexpected £400m windfall is basically an irrelevance, a drop in the ocean. At best it might give him a throwaway line to liven up what looks set to be a rather dull speech, and no I’m not talking about his infamously dour delivery here.

The Chancellor in theory has the power to make the promised “end of austerity” a reality regardless of that sum. Doing so or not comes down partly to his political choice. Partly it’s down to the economic situation he faces.

As I wrote earlier this week, had he opted to lift the 11-year freeze on fuel duty there might have been the capacity to end the four year freeze on most working age benefits a year early, and perhaps to find a bit extra for education and the NHS too.

But Prime Minister Theresa May cooked that goose for him. To be fair, there hasn’t been much sign of opposition to Number 10’s policy announcement from Number 11.

Of course not. Hitting the poor to help the rich (the fuel duty freeze disproportionately benefits the wealthy) is a very Tory policy, and while Mr Hammond is a sane Tory he is still a Tory. That’s the choice.

The situation he faces comes as a result of the choices of the crazy Tories sitting on the benches behind him. I’m talking here about Jacob Rees-Mogg and his 60 or 70 strong band of bonkers Brexiteers. It is they who are really limiting his room for manoeuvre. They make the need to plan for the no deal Brexit they crave his overwhelming priority.

Mr Hammond has made it clear he believes such an outcome would do immense harm to his country. He’s taken no end of flak for that, even though it’s his job to outline the economic reality Britain faces, however inconvenient that might be for some. The consolation for him of doing so is that it might give him the opportunity to say, “see, I told you so,” when the roof falls in. And we all know how much fun that can be.

But he still needs a war chest to provide a little shelter afterwards. That explains why this budget will be an unusually boring one.

That’s where his £400m of ”wriggle room” will go then, even though it will still be a drop in the ocean compared to what the country really needs to cushion it. But every little helps, as Tesco used to say in a time when its bosses didn’t have to worry about where the food was going to come from to restock their shelves when their trucks are stuck at customs.