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The Week Ahead: Commonwealth buy raises hopes for Imperial

Nick Clark
Monday 29 October 2007 01:00 GMT
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Imperial Tobacco's year has been dominated by its efforts to buy its Franco-Spanish rival Altadis, but the focus will be back on the core business this week. The progress of the ¿16bn (£11.2bn) bid has been slow, but two weeks ago it was finally approved by the European Commission and it is now waiting on the Spanish regulator.

There is unlikely to be much more news on the transformational deal in the results, so investors will concentrate on the numbers. Imperial has got on with the job in hand while the bid story has played out, with shares showing steady progress from 2,010p at the beginning of the year, to close at 2,437p on Friday.

Much of the improvement in the second half came from its acquisition of Commonwealth Brands. Evolution Securities forecasts profit before tax at £1.25bn up, with earnings per share of 137.1p.

TODAY: Investors in Lok'* Store, which buys leases and builds warehouses, will be scrutinising the full-year results for announcements of any new acquisitions. Investec said in August that it values the current portfolio at a net asset value per share of 290p, saying investors are " getting good exposure to the potential for further value creation from new sites".

The consensus operating profit is £1.5m and earnings per share at 2.1p. It is also set to announce its maiden dividend.

Results: Full Year – Lok 'nStore. Half Year – Blinkx, Chloride. Third Quarter – Lancashire Holdings

TOMORROW: Nightclub operator Luminar should show progress in tomorrow's interims. Its overhaul of the business is expected to show in the results, although margins could be down after promotions during the weaker summer months. The disposal of 3D Entertainments also promises good news for shareholders in the future.

KBC Peel Hunt said it expects pre-tax profits of £12m. It said the figure is a "33 per cent decline on absolute pre-tax, reflecting the disposal of 3D, but 58 per cent growth for the retained business reflecting the benefit of investment". The semiconductor group Wolfson Electronics said at its second-quarter results that it is set for its best revenue quarter in history. The revenues are estimated at between $63m (£31m) to $68m, and should contribute to deliver in line full year revenues.

It had been a tough year for production company RDF Media with the whole Queen-gate affair, but analysts believe a line has been drawn under the episode now. Altium Securities did, however, say it was prudent to downgrade its estimated full year earnings by 3 per cent.

Results: Full Year – BNS Telecom Group, Imperial Tobacco, International Medical Devices. First Half – LiDCO Group, Luminar Group Holdings. First Quarter – Surfcontrol, NDS Group. Third Quarter – Wolfson Microelectronics.

WEDNESDAY: Earlier this month, Tate & Lyle shares fell off a cliff after a profit warning, following losses at its sugar business. " Black Friday" as it was subsequently called by analysts, saw the shares fall from a mid 550p stock to a low 400s stock. Analysts are not expecting materially different numbers from the first-half guidance. Citigroup said it will be looking for more information on demand in Mexico.

Results: Full Year – Nord Anglia Education. First Half – RDF Media, Tate & Lyle. Third Quarter - Celsis International. Third Quarter – Roc Oil. Trading Update – Taylor Wimpey

THURSDAY: The other UK-listed tobacco major, British American Tobacco, is also reporting its third quarters this week. The analysts expect another solid set of results, with earnings before interest, tax and amortisation up at £762m. The company performed strongly in the first half, and a slight slow down is expected in this quarter, hit by price rises and tax increases.

Another company to report its third-quarter results on Thursday is Smith & Nephew. The stock rose recently on vague bid talk as well as a good read-across from results reported by several of its orthopaedic rivals in the US.

J&J, Stryker, Synthes and Zimmer reported hip and knee growth of between 5 per cent and 13 per cent and the market is generally considered okay. Landsbanki expects to see decent results across all its divisions.

Results: First Half – Alterian, Northern Foods, Shire. Third Quarter – Astrazeneca, BG Group, BAT, ICI, Randgold Resources, Unilever, Smith & Nephew. Trading Update – Dominos Pizza, Standard Life.

FRIDAY: Investors will be looking out for the growth in subscribers in Friday's first-quarter results from BSkyB, as well as how many customers have cancelled subscriptions.

Results: First Half – British Airways. First Quarter – BSkyB.

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