Blair to offer lukewarm welcome to Jenkins plan

TONY BLAIR will stop short of endorsing radical plans for electoral reform this week after a survey showed that Labour Party members remained deeply suspicious of change.

As Lord Jenkins of Hillhead prepares to reveal on Thursday his proposals to overhaul Westminster elections, a new study has found the party split down the middle on the issue.

The research will provide valuable ammunition for ministers opposed to reform when the Cabinet meets hours before the Jenkins announcement to agree the Prime Minister's response. Mr Blair is expected to avoid further disunity by giving the plans a cautious welcome, while steering clear of explicit suggestion that he is persuaded of change.

The Sheffield University survey of nearly 6,000 members shows that they are more likely to vote "no" in a referendum if they believe that the Jenkins plans will lead to coalition governments. It shows that members are almost evenly split on the question of proportional representation (PR).

A narrow majority, 52 per cent, are in favour of change, according to the research, which is to be published in a new book on Labour members attitudes next year. However, 66 per cent disagreed or strongly disagreed when asked if coalition government was a better form of government for Britain than the current system. Just 2 per cent strongly agreed with coalitions.

Professors Paul Whitely and Patrick Syed of Sheffield's politics department, also found that activists, who are more likely to vote in a referendum, were even less enthusiastic for reform.

Professor Whitely told The Independent that the figures proved the spectre of a coalition with smaller parties such as the Liberal Democrats clearly worried Labour members. "That is why the No and Yes campaigns in any referendum will be crucial," he said. "Support for reform is soft and if the opponents of change can hammer home the coalition argument, the research shows they will gain ground."

Proponents of reform hope Lord Jenkins will come up with proposals that ease such fears by backing a system that gives the Liberal Democrats more seats in parliament but not a king-making role. He is understood to have come up with an "ingenious" system that will maintain strong constituency links demanded by Labour MPs while introducing an element of proportionality demanded by the Liberal Democrats.

Although he will give a cautious reaction to the Jenkins report to pacify his party, Mr Blair is expected to keep open the possibility of holding a referendum on PR.

The Foreign Secretary, Robin Cook, yesterday added to the speculation when he said that Labour's agreement with the Liberal Democrats to hold a ballot had not changed. "That agreement and our manifesto did make a commitment to a referendum in this Parliament and at the present time I have no reason to believe that we are not going to have a referendum in this Parliament," he said.

Senior cabinet opponents of PR, such as the Deputy Prime Minister, John Prescott, and the Home Secretary, Jack Straw, believe a ballot will be an unwelcome distraction in the run up to the next general election. However, Mr Blair is under pressure to hold one to prevent Liberal Democrat leader, Paddy Ashdown, being savaged by his party for "selling out" to Labour.