LOCALIZE IT: What drove population changes last year in different race, ethnic groups in US
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Immigration propelled U.S. population growth last year, particularly among white and Asian populations, according to national population estimates released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Without immigration, the white population, including those who identify as more than one race, would have dropped last year instead of growing meagerly. When the focus is narrowed to white people who aren’t Hispanic and identify only with a single race, there was a decline of more than 668,000 people in the white population.
Births outpacing deaths helped propel growth in Hispanic, Black, tribal and Hawaiian populations.
Here's how you can find out what drove changes in different race, ethnic and age groups last year in your community based on the Census Bureau's vintage 2022 population estimates.
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READ AP’S STORY
Immigration drove white, Asian population growth in US last year
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VIEW DATA ABOUT YOUR STATE OR COUNTY
Number for the entire U.S. are here: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-national-detail.html
Data focused on individuals states can be found here: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-state-detail.html
Figures looking at individual counties is here: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-counties-detail.html
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ADVICE FOR WORKING WITH THE DATA
Each of the different levels of data — national, state and county level — have slight variances.
The “components of change" which describes whether a place grew or lost people from immigration, or from births outpacing deaths or vice versa, broken down by race and ethnic group, is only available at the national level in the file called Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change by Race and Hispanic Origin for the United States: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2022 (NC-EST2022-COMPN)(1.0 MB).
Components of change data are available at the state and county levels, but not broken down by race or ethnic group.
At the state level, the file, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2022 (SC-EST2022-SR11H), offers links to spreadsheets providing detailed overviews of the the race and ethnic makeup of each individual state from April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2022.
The race and ethnic group data breakdown gets a little more complicated at the county level since there are a lot more characteristics broken down by sex and age groups. Be sure to study the file layout so that you understand abbreviations in the variable names of the spreadsheet. That way you won't confuse “AA_Male,” which stands for “Asian alone male population,” with “AAC_Male,” which stands for “Asian alone or in combination male population.”
The file layout also explains other characteristics, such as that in the “age group” column a “1” represents people between ages 0 and 4, and that a “4” in the “year” column represents July 1, 2022.
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CONSIDER THESE STORY IDEAS
— What drove population change in my community last year, and how did that alter the community's makeup? Population change is driven by immigration, migration from another place in the U.S., as well as natural changes from either births outpacing deaths, or vice versa. From the most recently released population estimates, you can track the changes in your community by race or ethnic background, and from other population estimates released earlier this year, you can track the components of change in your community — whether it was from migration or natural change.
— What local policies or conditions are encouraging or discouraging immigration or domestic migration to my community, as well as births? For instance, inexpensive housing and the availability of jobs attracted Bosnians fleeing war in their home country to St. Louis in the 1990s, and the Midwestern city now has among the largest Bosnian communities in the U.S. The availability of urban, professional jobs in the District of Columbia has helped give it among the lowest median ages in the U.S. at 34.8. Educational and job opportunities outside Maine have caused young people to leave, giving the state the highest median age at 44.8.
— How have immigrant groups in my community changed over the decades? Using the St. Louis example, immigration was driven by German newcomers in the late 19th century but that has given way to people from Bosnia, China and India in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. How has immigration changed in my community as a driver of population change over the decades?
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CONSIDER THESE SOURCES
— Reaching out to organizations in your community that help newcomers adjust to life in the U.S. is a good place for finding immigrants who have settled in your area recently. This U.S. Office of Refugee Resettlement website offers a comprehensive list of groups by city and state: https://www.acf.hhs.gov/orr/map/find-resources-and-contacts-your-state.
— Reach out to ministers, priests, rabbis or imams in your community to see if they can put you in touch with families who have just had babies or had to bury a loved one. These families can give you “real people” voices to the natural changes in the population.
— For a big-picture perspective, demographers at the Federal-State Cooperative for Population Estimates and the State Data Center can help you spot population trends and offer expert commentary on what is going on in your community.
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MORE READING
New census estimates show a tepid rise in U.S. population growth, buoyed by immigration from William Frey at Brookings.
The Demographic Outlook: 2023 to 2053 from the Congressional Budget Office.
Immigrant Swan Song from the International Monetary Fund.
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Localize It is an occasional feature produced by The Associated Press for its customers’ use. Questions can be directed to Katie Oyan at koyan@ap.org.
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Follow Mike Schneider on Twitter at @MikeSchneiderAP