Georgia prepares for a divisive election which could determine its future in Europe

The South Caucasus country of Georgia will go to the polls Saturday in a parliamentary election many citizens believe may be the most crucial vote of their lifetimes

When Vahan Agayan goes to the polling station in Georgia’s parliamentary election Saturday, he says he and his wife will vote as directed to by officials of the ruling Georgian Dream party.

Agayan has a sheep farm near the border with Armenia and Turkey, 135 kilometers (83 miles) west of — and a world away from — the Georgian capital, Tbilisi. There, tens of thousands of demonstrators marched in a pre-election demonstration in favor of joining the European Union.

But in the mountainous Javakheti region, what Agayan wants most is stability.

A few years ago, wolves got into his barn and killed half the sheep, almost destroying the livelihoods of dozens of families. For Agayan, the EU is far away; what matters are the local leaders who have the power to make or break small farmers like him.

“Most people” will vote for the regional lawmaker from Georgian Dream, he said.

“An old dog is always better than a new one,” he said, suggesting a change in power could be unpredictable.

Many in this South Caucasus country of 3.7 million people believe the election will be the most important of their lives, a pivotal vote on the chance to join the European Union. It pits a coalition of opposition parties against Georgian Dream, which has governed in an increasingly authoritarian fashion since 2012.

Polls indicate around 80% of Georgians favor joining the EU, and the constitution obliges leaders to pursue membership in both the bloc and NATO.

In July, Brussels put Georgia’s bid for EU entry on hold indefinitely after Georgian Dream passed a “foreign influence law,” modeled on similar legislation in Russia. It requires media, nongovernmental organizations and other nonprofit groups to register as “pursuing the interests of a foreign power” if they receive more than 20% of their funding from abroad.

Georgian Dream argues it is needed to curb harmful foreign actors trying to destabilize the country. Many journalists and activists say its true goal is to stigmatize them and restrict debate before the election.

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This story, supported by the Pulitzer Center for Crisis Reporting, is part of an ongoing Associated Press series covering threats to democracy in Europe.

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Georgia has long had an uneasy relationship with Russia. For most of the last century, it was ruled from Moscow until it gained independence in 1991, following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In 2008, Georgia fought and lost a brief war with Russia, which still occupies some of its territory.

When Georgian Dream came to power in 2012, it vowed to restore civil rights and “reset” relations with Moscow. The party — set up by Bidzina Ivanishvili, a shadowy billionaire who made his fortune in Russia — also promised to pursue EU membership.

That reassured many Georgians who had seen “with their own eyes,” the threat from Russia and looked to the West to protect them, said Natia Seskuria, executive director of the Regional Institute for Security Studies in Tbilisi.

But then Georgian Dream started tracking toward Moscow: passing the foreign influence law despite mass protests, abstaining from international sanctions on Russia over its war in Ukraine, and severely curtailing LGBTQ+ rights.

However, the party’s authoritarian swing cannot be explained by influence from Moscow alone, Seskuria said. Instead, she suggested, the purpose of the foreign influence law is also “power preservation.”

She indicated Georgian Dream’s leaders watched the Kremlin use new laws to successfully crack down on critics and decided to do the same.

Some businesspeople who support Georgian Dream also have an interest in seeing the party reelected as they have profited from its tenure. At a pro-government rally in Tbilisi Wednesday, family members of people who were awarded plum jobs in railways and infrastructure were spotted in the crowd.

Georgian Dream is conducting a “hybrid war” against its citizens, said Zurab Chiaberashvili, foreign policy secretary from the United National Movement opposition party.

Ahead of the election, campaign ads for the ruling party claimed a “Global War Party” was seeking to influence the EU and the U.S., widen the conflict in Ukraine, and force Georgian Dream from power.

Billboards also appeared, contrasting black-and-white images of destruction in Ukraine with colorful images of life in Georgia alongside the slogan, “Say no to war — choose peace.”

“Everyone is afraid of war,” said Nairik Ukanyan, the owner of a village shop in the Javakheti region, which is populated by ethnic Armenians. Like Ukanyan, many people speak Armenian and Russian but limited Georgian.

Ukanyan said he got his news about Georgia from Russian television, which says relations between the two countries are friendly.

“Why do we need a relationship with Europe?” he asked. Agayan, the sheep farmer, agreed: “Even if I had 20 children, I would not send them to Europe.”

The West, he said, is “afraid of Russia and wants everyone to abandon it.”

Georgian Dream appears to keeps a tight grip on power. Its officials paid several villagers about $110 each to persuade others to support the ruling party, Agayan said.

But not every resident indicated they would back the party.

“I am a single mother and we are very poor,” said Gayane Batirova, 41.

Her entire family previously voted for Georgian Dream, she explained. She had been told to vote for the party again but would not because it hadn’t improved her life.

AP visited Georgian Dream’s local headquarters in Javakheti, but no one responded to requests for comment.

In the town of Ninotsminda, office signs were displayed in Russian and an official said everyone was out “on business” and unavailable for an interview.

Back in Tbilisi, Georgian Dream lawmaker Maka Bochorishvili said the party's main goal is European integration based on “peace and dignity,” alluding to the party’s conservative values.

“At stake is peace and stability in this country,” she said.

But while Georgian Dream is telling voters it wants to join Europe, its shift toward adopting Russia-style laws has cost it support in the West. As well as the EU freezing membership talks, the U.K. suspended its security dialogue with Georgia and canceled other defense talks, concerned about threats to democracy.

These moves are “good news for Russia,” Seskuria said, because the Kremlin is “inherently interested” in Georgia being cut off from the West, including the loss of financial support and through sanctions.

Many Georgians fear if Georgian Dream is reelected, it could kill off aspirations to EU membership entirely.

“We are at a crossroads — either becoming a Russian puppet state or being independent and free,” said Tina Bezhanidze, 26. Wrapped in the Georgian flag, she was one of tens of thousands who joined a pro-EU demonstration in Tbilisi on Sunday.

Bezhanidze, an economist, came to the demonstration with her parents and three younger sisters, in a show of cross-generational support for Georgia’s European ambitions.

Even in remote Javakheti, not everyone thought aligning with Russia was a good idea.

“Of course we need the European Union,” said Eghsam Manasyan, who was collecting potatoes in her vegetable patch.

She and her husband Artur told AP they wished there were more jobs in the region.

“All our lives we were with Russia and the Soviet Union,” Artur Manasyan said, adding that Georgia needs to “look everywhere” for opportunities.

“We still don’t really know what Europe is,” he said.

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Sophiko Megrelidze contributed to this report.