Pick of the Pundits: Housing and the sex factor: Experts on the different aspects of personal finance talk to Vivien Goldsmith and Maria Scott about the prospects for 1993 as signs of recovery grow firmer: John Wriglesworth

John Wriglesworth, housing analyst with UBS Phillips & Drew, was less wrong last year than other housing market watchers when he predicted price rises of 2 per cent for 1992 (compared with the heady 5 per cent rises forecast by others). In the event, prices continued their downward path and ended the year more than 5 per cent lower.

'I got the transactions wrong,' he now admits. 'I thought they would improve in 1992 and they didn't. But I do think they will pick up in 1993 because of lower interest rates.'

He now believes that house prices will continue to fall during the first half of the year so that they will be around 5 or 6 per cent lower by June or July. Prices will then steady so they will still end the year 5 or 6 per cent down on current values.

'While most observers are going for a spring revival, I don't think things will pick up until much later in the year, and it won't be strong enough to offset the falls. But I think there will be a confident, resilient recovery in 1994.'

He believes the growth of families who are in many cases bursting out of their too-small homes will fuel a housing revival. 'The recession can delay babies, but when you can't afford to go out . . .'