Jeremy Laurance: It is too late to lock the stable doors now, Mr Lansley

Comment

Flu always catches us by surprise. Last year Britain braced itself for the first flu pandemic of the 21st century.

The Government stockpiled vast quantities of vaccines and anti-viral drugs but it turned out milder than expected and ministers were accused of over-reacting.

This year, no doubt lulled by that experience, ministers allowed the annual flu vaccination advertising campaign to be axed.

Now intensive care units are bulging with four times more patients than at the peak last year, deaths are rising and Andrew Lansley finds himself accused of doing too little, too late.

The Health Secretary says advertising campaigns are not an effective way of getting the message about vaccination across. Yet today he is launching one to promote personal hygiene to curb the spread of the disease.

The key message about flu is that it is a preventable disease with an effective vaccine. This was not true last year – the vaccine only became available after the first wave of cases in the summer and supplies were still being rolled out around the country during the second wave in the autumn.

That message should have been broadcast loud and clear this autumn when there was plenty of vaccine and plenty of time for those at risk to get it. Instead, vaccination rates are today at historically low levels – and it is almost too late now for raising them to be effective. Complacency is undoubtedly a factor in the low uptake following last year's milder than expected pandemic. But ministers are also to blame for failing to drive home the message that swine flu can be deadly.

It is not only the public who are confused. Nurses, doctors' receptionists, midwives and other health professionals also appear ill informed. A poll of The Independent's office turned up several examples of people who had been given wrong information.

The official advice has also changed, adding to the confusion. Last year, healthy children were recommended for vaccination. This year they are not. Healthy pregnant women – without risk factors such as asthma – are recommended for vaccination this year. Last year they were not.

Children with risk factors who are recommended for vaccination this year should have had two jabs – one of the monovalent [single] swine flu and one of the trivalent [three vaccines against swine flu and two other strains] to give them maximum immunity.

A complex message requires careful communication.

This has been lacking. As a result, a number of children and adults will die, whose deaths could have been prevented. Every death is a tragedy but an avoidable death should be unrepeatable.