Coronavirus: Italy’s second wave could be deadlier than first if lockdown eased too much, study warns

Estimated 4.5 million Italians returned to work this week as authorities start second phase of Covid-19 response, writes Samuel Lovett

Tourists wear face masks outside the Colosseum in Rome (AFP)

Italy is at risk of a second wave of coronavirus infections that could be far more deadly than the first if the country’s lockdown is eased too much, research has shown.

The Italian population was allowed to venture outside on Monday for the first time in 50 days, as the government began what it has called the second phase of its emergency response to the Covid-19 crisis.

An estimated 4.5 million people returned to work, while small businesses have begun gradually reopening their doors.

Although the infection rate has been steadily falling, fear of the virus lingers – and a new paper from Imperial College London has shed light on the dangers that will arise if Italy rushes its exit from lockdown.

Researchers modelled how the virus would spread in three different scenarios: if the nation stayed under lockdown; if Italians increased their movements by an average of 20 per cent; and if mobility increased by 40 per cent.

The MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis found that if general movement returned to 20 per cent that of pre-lockdown levels – without the introduction of additional interventions such as contact tracing – then several regions in the country could suffer from “a resurgence in the number of deaths far greater than experienced in the current wave”.

To date, more than 29,000 people have died from coronavirus in Italy, according to figures from Johns Hopkins University.

“Future increases in the number of deaths will lag behind the increase in transmission intensity and so a second wave will not be immediately apparent from just monitoring of the daily number of deaths,” the paper adds.

“Our results suggest that Sars-CoV-2 transmission, as well as mobility, should be closely monitored in the next weeks and months.”

The research acknowledges that its findings “should be viewed as pessimistic projections”, given the scenarios explored assume that “behaviour stays the same” as before the lockdown was introduced and do not account for new measures, such as contact tracing, which “will contribute to reductions in transmission”.

In light of their findings, the Imperial College London team recommended that social distancing measures continue to be adhered to, alongside enhanced community surveillance, swab testing, contact tracing and the early isolation of infections.

The easing of restrictions in Italy is to be gradual, with factories geared towards exports and construction sites allowed to resume activity immediately.

Retailers, museums and libraries will open from 18 May, while bars and restaurants will reopen on 1 June – though takeaway services are allowed until then. Schools are set to return in September.

Italy has suffered one of the worst outbreaks on the planet, becoming the epicentre of the pandemic in early March after a sudden rise in cases in its northern Lombardy region.

A series of draconian containment measures were enforced on 9 March as local health authorities were left overwhelmed by a surge in deaths and infections.

The strategy has helped to alleviate pressure on the country’s healthcare system and brought the number of daily fatalities down to less than 100 a day.

However, Walter Ricciardi, the scientist advising the health ministry on its coronavirus response, said the country would go straight back into lockdown if the infection rate rose again. “We’re still in a risky phase,” he told La Repubblica. “It will take two weeks to see how it’s going.”