As the world worries about coronavirus and the US election, two potential superpowers are edging closer to war

Border tensions are growing between India and China in a military standoff which could end up a ‘grave human tragedy’. Mayank Aggarwal in Delhi reports on how India is preparing for a potential conflict

An Indian army convoy moves on the Srinagar- Ladakh highway at Gagangeer, northeast of Srinagar, Indian-controlled Kashmir (AP)

"Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected,” says Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu in his book The Art of War.

Standing eye to eye with Chinese forces in the Ladakh region since May this year, India has lost all appetite for “surprises” like the kind that led to the deaths of 20 of its soldiers in hand-to-hand brawling in June.

As the conflict has dragged on to become the most serious between the two Asian giants since the 1962 India-China war, Delhi has deployed tens of thousands more troops across the 3,488 km (2,167 miles) Line of Actual Control – the disputed de facto border – to protect its territory. With the unforgiving winters of the region just around the corner and no de-escalation in sight, India has dug its heels deep.

It is not that Indian forces have no experience of maintaining positions through winter in the higher ranges of the Himalayas, where temperature frequently plummet well below freezing. It has been stationed at the Siachen glacier, often called the world’s highest battlefield, since the mid-1980s.

But analysts told The Independent that the scale of the troop deployment in Ladakh this time – over 50,000 and counting – seems unprecedented.  Add the deployment of artillery guns, tanks and support from fighter jets – with a similar scale of commitment coming from China including troop numbers – and it looks like India is in no mood to back down.

Since the first violent confrontation took place between the two sides in May, several rounds of talks at both political and military levels have taken place. Despite statements about the need for de-escalation, that seems far from the reality on the ground.

The standoff is a result of decades of dispute and mistrust, with experts calling the current situation a crisis years in the making. There have been two notable incidents in the past decade alone, at Depsang in 2013 and then the more serious Doklam crisis in 2017. Both lasted no more than a few months, however, and both took place in the spring.

China and India have hotly disputed their shared border since the brief war in 1962, with Beijing objecting to Indian administrative changes to the region ever since. 

In the past week, China’s foreign office spokesman Zhao Lijian said his country does not recognise either the new Union Territory of Ladakh or the state of Arunachal Pradesh – founded in 1987. He pointed the finger at India for “stepping up infrastructure building and military deployment along the border with China”. This was the “the root cause of [the current] tensions”, Mr Lijian added.

Speaking to The Independent, the former Indian foreign secretary Nirupama Menon Rao said that “there is a complete erosion of trust between the two countries”.

“Why are the Chinese doing it? It is very difficult to attribute [to] one single factor but the heightened activity along the LAC (Line of Actual Control) makes it very clear that they are pushing westwards and coming into areas where they were not present in recent years. Following the conflict of 1962, the Chinese had withdrawn at least a few kilometres eastwards and the LAC had remained relatively quiet all these years until 2013-2014 at least. Then we had the Doklam crisis of 2017, when relations became very fraught.” 

Jagannath Panda, a research fellow at the Delhi-based Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), explained that the current tensions have become a prestige issue for both nations and has its roots in the Doklam crisis.

In June 2017, India and China faced each other in Bhutan, when the Chinese side entered Doklam by building a new road which, according to India, was a violation of its existing understandings both with Bhutan and India.  

India maintained that changes to the status quo in Doklam would have serious security implications and more than two months later both sides disengaged. Since then, the area has been peaceful. But experts point out that the Doklam incident was a loss of face for China, which had not expected India to stand so firmly in opposition.

“After Doklam, China specifically doesn’t want to back out and wants to come out of it strongly. Moreover, after the Galwan valley incident where both the armies lost soldiers, it has become a very emotional turn as well. For any diplomatic solution, a political consensus is required but now no one is willing to climb down,” Mr Panda said.

Mr Panda claims that emerging stronger from the current situation is very important for China considering the Communist Party of China will celebrate its centenary next year. “China’s establishment is in a kind of catch-22 situation as they never expected India to react so strongly in its diplomatic, political and military response.”

Ms Rao, who has also served as India’s ambassador to the United States, noted that this situation is not going to go away easily and the Chinese seem to be quite ready for a situation of prolonged tension. India, she said, has to prepare accordingly for that.

But readying so many troops at high altitude in the Himalayan region is nothing short of a Herculean task itself. The Indian military has been in overdrive to prepare the troops for winter. Despite its relative experience at altitude, never has its army stood eye to eye with an adversary on such a massive scale in the coldest months.

Retired Lt Gen DS Hooda, said Indian troops had been deployed in the Himalayas in previous winters but notably now there has been a large increase in troop numbers, though exactly how many is not known.  

Asked why the Indian government has been pushing infrastructure development on the Indian side of the LAC over the years, Mr Hooda said that in 2006 when the Indian government approved a programme for development of roads on their side of the India-China border there was a  belief among officials that this was needed urgently. 

“But the pace was definitely slow. It has now picked up in the last few years but there is no doubt that Chinese infrastructure on their side is superior,” Mr Hooda said.

India’s defence minister Rajnath Singh, during a press conference, claimed that the simultaneous disputes at its border with Pakistan and now China appear to be coordinated. He told reporters that 44 border bridges – eight of which are in Ladakh - have been built by the Indian army. They can withstand India’s heaviest battle tanks and are among over 100 bridges planned by India in border areas this year.

The onus lies on the political and diplomatic community to find solutions to avoid a grave human tragedy

Lt General PJS Pannu, former commander in India’s army

Senior military officers who have been closely watching the movement on the borders for years also note that India is focusing not only on the LAC in Ladakh but right across the India-China border.

Lt Gen SL Narasimhan, a member of India's National Security Advisory Board, said: “Surveillance and monitoring along the entire India-China Line of Actual Control is important.”

Mr Narasimhan said both sides have been building up their military forces along the disputed border.

“Though it is not easy, we [India] have our systems in place. Now, both sides have built-up forces. Even if the talks are successful and disengagement is agreed upon, quick disengagement seems unlikely and pull out of troops will take some time,” he said.

He added: “A few political meetings have already taken place but there has been no solution so far. I am not very hopeful of any disengagement anytime soon,” he said. His pessimism was  shared by Ms Rao, who feels that this “situation is going to be very long drawn out even as efforts continue to achieve the status quo of April 2020 or disengagement".

“On the ground, we are seeing little change and thus we have to be prepared to dig even if there is a long winter ahead of us. Extraordinary situations require extraordinary responses,” said Ms Rao.

The former foreign secretary also said that in current circumstances, India would obviously be drawing much closer to the United States - which has grown increasingly belligerent towards China under President Trump - and “our partners within the Quad”, a group of four nations formed by the US, Japan, Australia and India. If they have anything in common, it is their ongoing disputes with China at various levels.

“We will need to formulate clear strategies multi-dimensionally. It is not [about] crafting a military alliance against China, but preparing a strategic response,” she said.

India’s involvement with Quad has been taking shape rapidly. On 6 October, the group met in Tokyo where the US talked about perceived Chinese aggression in the region. It was followed by a visit by the US’s deputy secretary of state Stephen Biegun to Delhi, seen as laying the groundwork for secretary of state Mike Pompeo and defence secretary Mark Esper's talks with their Indian counterparts later this month.

Mr Panda notes that India is building its capability across the Indo-Pacific region and has been signing military-logistical agreements with Japan, Australia and the US. “With the US, India has now signed nearly all major military agreements and that has surprised China whose army itself has gone under major restructuring and modernisation over the last few years,” Mr Panda said.

Lt Gen PJS Pannu, a former commander in India’s army, said that until the standoff is resolved, the two militaries will continue to prepare themselves to fight because neither would want to be surprised – more so India, which has already been caught off guard.

Chillingly, he warned that if another war happens between the two emerging Asian powers, the ripple effect will be felt everywhere, as one third of humanity will be involved in the fight and the other two thirds would be impacted.

“The onus lies on the political and diplomatic community to find solutions to avoid a grave human tragedy,” Mr Pannu said. “Not only in Asia but also for a larger part of the world. If this kind of irrationality persists, people will lose their jobs, health and lives. Economies are already shrinking.”

But he is adamant that if it came to it, there’s only one country with which the majority of other nations would side. “China is inviting the anger of the whole world,” Mr Pannu said. “A war would mean the world attacking China from all directions.”