Coronavirus: Europe could see surge in refugees as pandemic hits poorer countries, says EU asylum agency

The potential resurgence of Isis and the increasing likelihood of major economic disruption and famine in less developed nations could trigger an increase in people fleeing to the UK and other European countries, reports May Bulman

EU asylum agency report warns of ‘havoc’ in less developed nations (Reuters)

Britain and Europe could see a surge in people seeking asylum if the coronavirus pandemic starts to take hold in poorer countries, according to the EU asylum agency.

The virus could “wreak havoc” in less developed nations where there are often fewer hospital beds and medical doctors per capita, crowded living conditions, and a lack of access to hand-washing facilities, the European Asylum Support Office (EASO) said.

The report states that these factors, combined with the potential for food shortages and security destabilisation should Covid-19 take hold, could trigger an increase in the number of asylum seekers fleeing to Europe in years to come.

“The main countries of origin of applicants for asylum … have medium to high vulnerability to hazards (including infections) and suffer from a lack of coping capacity. The risk of destabilising effects resulting from Covid-19 outbreaks have the potential to affect future asylum trends,” it states.

The lockdown has so far led to a decrease in the number of asylum seekers reaching Europe – with about half as many asylum claims in March as in February.

On the Middle East EASO notes that the suspension of global coalition operations has left a “power gap” that Isis is “looking to exploit” and that this, along with the fact that local troops are distracted by disaster relief and enforcing curfews, could lead to a resurgence of the terrorist organisation, and prompt more people to flee.

The report also states that the loss of jobs and economic self-sufficiency due to containment measures might have “profound impact” on people’s livelihoods in less developed nations, where the state may not be able to provide additional support.

It states: “In the interests of early warning and preparedness, national asylum and reception authorities should reflect upon the medium to high risk that the outbreak will eventually take hold in the countries of origin and transit.

“In turn, indirect (ie the recrudescence of ISIS) and direct consequences (famine, conflict and security risks) of the virus might affect asylum-related migration to the EU+, and contribute the most to new applications or the reception population.”

Rob McNeil, deputy director at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, said that while attempting to predict future migration flows was “always problematic”, it appeared inevitable that Covid-19 would generate social and economic shocks around the world.

“We do know, from past experience, that when people move as a result of crises, most remain relatively close to their homes – either as internally displaced people, or refugees in neighbouring countries – which is why Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon, for example, ended up hosting vastly more refugees from the Syrian civil war,” he told The Independent.

“Some of these could lead to the displacement of people, but exactly where these might happen, how many people they might affect, or which regions or countries people may flee to are all unknowns.”

Mr McNeil added: “What does seem likely is that the existing deep public unease in Europe and elsewhere about the spread of Covid-19 may exacerbate tensions and concerns about incoming migrants, and the impacts these may have on public health and public finances.

“It is important, therefore, that in these time of heightened tensions public debates about humanitarian migration flows and public health remain rooted in facts and clear analysis, rather than speculation.“

It is not yet clear why coronavirus outbreaks have so far been concentrated in the developed world. Some data suggest that low and lower-middle income countries may be at less risk of large-scale coronavirus outbreaks because of their warm climates and younger and less obese populations.

But it may also be the result of having fewer international connections and more rural populations, delaying the outbreak –but only temporarily.

The EASO report states that it is “not unreasonable” to assume that there are more cases of Covid-19 in these countries than are being reported.