Like father, like son? Why Cambodia’s next PM, Hun Manet, might struggle to plot his own path
Questions are swirling about whether Hun Sen’s son will rule with a tight grip like his father or adopt a more liberal approach and improve relations with the west, writes Allegra Mendelson in Phnom Penh
After nearly four decades in power, Cambodia’s authoritarian ruler Hun Sen has laid the foundations for a political dynasty by anointing his son – Hun Manet – as the country’s next leader.
While the official announcement last month was all but inevitable, questions are now being asked as to what kind of prime minister the heir apparent will be – and whether he will follow in the footsteps of his father or prove more progressive.
Manet was confirmed as the next leader of the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) on 24 December following a unanimous vote. While the timeframe is unclear, with no viable opposition, he is likely to succeed his father as prime minister by the end of the decade.
With Manet’s political future starting to take form, many analysts are concerned with how his leadership might resemble that of Hun Sen and whether other figureheads within the party could use the handover as an opportunity to seize more authority for themselves.
With a western education in the UK and US, some experts think that Hun Sen’s successor will take a more liberal approach to governance, while others predict that he will be a dictatorial figure cut from the same cloth as his strongman father.
Hun Sen, who is one of the world’s longest-ruling leaders, having been in power since 1985, has said that he plans to stay on as president of the CPP when he steps down as prime minister, suggesting that he could continue puppeteering his son behind the scenes.
“If Hun Manet were to become prime minister, he will need to lead in the existing system built by his father and the CPP. To continue to consolidate power, he might have no choice but to develop into a similar kind of leader like his father,” Heng Kimkong, a PhD candidate at the University of Queensland in Australia, told The Independent.
“And Hun Sen will also continue to support him [Manet] to ensure he leads smoothly,” added Kimkong, who is also a visiting senior research fellow at the Cambodia Development Centre.
The prime minister is well known for his totalitarian style, having regularly jailed journalists and union leaders who speak out against him, and claiming that those who challenge him or the CPP are engaging in treason.
In 2017, Hun Sen dissolved the primary opposition party, imprisoning some of its leadership and sending others into exile, a move which ensured that he could both remain in office indefinitely and have control over naming his successor.
However, even with the stage set for a handover, Manet could still face push back from party stalwarts who resent his privileged upbringing and education abroad at Bristol University as well as New York University and the US military academy at West Point.
He can bring in a new era of politics because he has a western education
Political analyst Lao Mong Hay, who has followed Cambodian politics for decades, said that Manet’s elite status could isolate him from fellow politicians as well as the public who may not believe he has earned the top seat in the country, especially since he has never served in office.
“Owing his rapid rise to positions of power almost entirely to his pushy father’s strong patronage does not seem to help him to earn much respect from the public and from his contemporaries, and to gain more authority over them,” said Lao Mong Hay, who is a former senior researcher at the Asian Human Rights Commission in Hong Kong.
“It will be very difficult for prime minister Hun Manet to assert his power.”
Among those who could trouble Manet is Sar Kheng, the interior minister and one of 10 deputy prime ministers, who has often been considered a moderate alternative to Hun Sen.
When the prime minister initially announced his plans for his son to succeed him, Kheng was the only member of his cabinet to not immediately endorse the decision.
Hun Sen even addressed these rumours in early December, publicly stating that there would be no point in Kheng becoming prime minister given how close the two men are in terms of age, and calling such speculation “crazy, crazy, crazy”.
However, most observers are quick to dismiss rumours that there might be a quiet revolution brewing.
While there are internal power struggles within the CPP, Hun Sen’s control over the political system means any attempted power grab would be near impossible and has ensured his cronies stay in line, Kimkong said.
Regardless of whether deputies such as Kheng could exploit the handover for personal gain, the current administration seems eager to advertise Manet’s allegedly more liberal background as evidence that he is the right choice for the job as well as a fresh voice in Cambodian politics.
In response to questions from The Independent, government spokesperson Phay Siphan repeatedly stressed the value of his western education as emblematic of the kind of leader he will be.
“He can bring in a new era of politics because he has a western education so his mind is related to western ways of thinking,” Siphan said. “He can also bring in a new chapter of Cambodian leaders who have graduated from the west and can bring in new ideas to push for more unity.”
Sebastian Strangio, a journalist and author of Hun Sen’s Cambodia, said he did not find it surprising that the government would tout Manet’s educational background as it distinguishes him from his father in making him a more sympathetic leader to the west, especially amid Cambodia’s booming relations with China.
“I think that they are hoping that Manet can lead to a reset in relations with the US and European powers because he has this connection, and [the government] rightly recognises that a lot of the bad press that Cambodia gets is because the same leaders have been in power for nearly four decades,” said Strangio.
“But even though there is awareness within the government that relations with the US and the West are important, China will remain more dominant than western powers because of its proximity and what it can offer Cambodia.”
Cambodia is heavily reliant on trade with Beijing, with China once again topping the kingdom’s foreign direct investment in the first half of 2021. China’s control over numerous Cambodian development projects, especially in the western city of Sihanoukville, has sparked concern that Phnom Penh has grown overly dependent on China.
The EU in 2020 partially withdrew trade preferences for Cambodia over human rights and democracy concerns, while the US last month imposed an arms embargo, citing the “growing influence of [China’s] military in Cambodia”.
Although the US is not currently a supplier to Cambodia, the move, as well as the existing sanctions against five high-ranking military commanders close to Hun Sen, signal a growing strain in US-Cambodia relations that the government seems hopeful Manet can address.
But it remains to be seen when Manet will have a chance to try his hand at improving these ties. Hun Sen had initially said he would stay in power until 2028, but more recently has suggested he could step down as early as 2023.
He also recently announced that he would be imposing a retirement age of 72 for all future prime ministers. While many observers saw this as a sign that he may soon be stepping down, he was clear that this new restriction would not apply to him.
“Hun Manet’s succession to his father is now assured, but whether he will succeed at the 2023 or at the 2028 election will remain subject to further horse trading within the CPP,” said Lao Mong Hay.
“And so far it seems he has not achieved much that has won him public praise and appreciation.”
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