Has populist Orban misjudged mood as anger rises over plans for Chinese university in Hungary?

Hungary’s shift towards the East has been met with street protests and disapproval even from inside the prime minister’s party, reports William Nattrass

Anti-government protests have hit the streets of Budapest amid a row about construction of a Chinese University (Getty Images)

Hungarians are fighting back against the country’s growing alliances with the East. Thousands gathered in Budapest on Saturday to protest against the controversial establishment of a Chinese university branch in the city. But in a country where a lack of transparency is the norm, deep-seated public hostility is unlikely to be enough to stop the project in its tracks.

The planned construction of a Budapest branch of Shanghai’s Fudan University is being seen as the latest step in Hungary’s geopolitical shift to the East, and a particularly egregious example of the opaque governing style of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party.

The Hungarian government estimates construction of the new campus will cost €1.5bn, funded through a Chinese loan. Eyebrows were raised about the size of the investment, and its planned location on a site previously earmarked for affordable student housing.

Concerns escalated, though, when more specific details about the development emerged. Leaked official documents suggest that the use of a Chinese contractor, using predominantly Chinese materials and labour, is a precondition of the deal.

The Fudan investment stands out, because it is such a huge deal and the benefits for Hungary are so unclear

Gábor Győri, Hungarian think tank, Policy Solutions

“The construction can only be carried out as a Chinese-only project,” say the plans, implying that usual public tender procedures will be bypassed.

“Considering Hungary’s size, this is a massive investment,” Gábor Győri, from Hungarian think tank Policy Solutions, told The Independent. “€1.5bn is far more than Hungary spends on its own higher education institutions each year. The deal simply doesn’t make sense.”

Győri claims the Fudan University development is symptomatic of the opacity of decision-making processes in Hungarian business and politics. “Many important policy decisions are made without necessary information or explanation. The Fudan investment stands out because it is such a huge deal and the benefits for Hungary are so unclear. This lack of transparency makes speculation about corruption inevitable.”

Saturday’s protests were encouraged by Gergely Karácsony, the mayor of Budapest and a candidate to take on Orbán in next year’s general election, likely to take place in spring 2022.

Karácsony highlighted Chinese human rights abuses by renaming streets around the proposed site of the new Fudan campus. Signs sprang up bearing the names Free Hong Kong Road, Road of Uyghur Martyrs, Dalai Lama Road, and Bishop Xie Shiguang Road (named after a Catholic priest persecuted by the Chinese communist regime).

Indeed, alliances with repressive regimes in China and Russia are becoming a major talking point, with the pandemic having accelerated a recent geopolitical realignment towards the East. Investigative news portal Direkt36 has uncovered the worrying extent of Chinese influence and intelligence activity in Hungary, while the news service Telex reported that Fidesz’s policy of opening up to the East has brought few economic benefits to the country.

Experts, meanwhile, warn the new Fudan campus would be used to “groom and co-opt” Hungary’s business, political and intellectual elites.

Hungary was the first EU member to break away from the bloc’s vaccine programme by purchasing Chinese and Russian jabs.

Hungarian leaders described Brussels’ centralised procurement programme as having “failed”, while in May, foreign minister Péter Szijjártó presented his Chinese counterpart with the Order of Merit of Hungary in gratitude for Chinese vaccine deliveries. A deal was subsequently announced to produce Sinopharm jabs in a new vaccine factory in Hungary.

A shipment of China’s Sinopharm Covid-19 vaccine arrives at Budapest Airport (via REUTERS)

The vaccine roll-out has been a golden opportunity for Orbán to demonstrate the benefits of Hungary’s independent attitude within the EU – he has also vetoed a number of recent EU statements, including one criticising the Chinese security law in Hong Kong.

The shift towards China also reflects Fidesz’s sceptical stance towards modern western values more broadly. “Orbán has been saying for years that the West is in decline, and that Hungary’s values are much more closely aligned with the East, which is on the rise,” says Győri.

“His attempt to reorient the country towards the East involves portraying the West as decadent, and the East as dynamic. The Fudan development is another step in this process.”

Yet as the protests in Budapest indicate, this stance is not without political risk. Polls show widespread negative attitudes towards the new Chinese university campus: one recent study suggests 66 per cent of Hungarians are against it, including 31 per cent of Fidesz supporters.

Fidesz may have “priced in” losing liberal Budapest in 2022 – but in prioritising alliances with the likes of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, Orbán could alienate swing voters. With a united opposition, in which six opposition parties have pledged to run together, set to pose a serious threat to Orbán’s rule in parliamentary elections next year, fears about growing eastern influence could make it an even tighter race.

“This issue could lose Fidesz votes in rural areas, and only a small number need to be turned to change the outcome of the election,” says Győri.

Orbán now seems to have recognised the Fudan campus as an electoral misstep, suggesting the development could be put on hold and a referendum called on the matter after the election. The protests have made an impression, although tough criteria for referenda in Hungary mean a public vote would be unlikely to stop the project in the long run.

Exorbitantly expensive, worryingly opaque, and deeply unpopular – the proposed Fudan campus has little going for it. And with crunch elections on the horizon, this controversial step towards closer relations with China is proving highly problematic for Orbán’s government.