Why the US presidential vote is Russia’s unwinnable election

Beyond the hacking headlines, Moscow appears resigned to a toxic relationship – no matter who wins, writes Oliver Carroll

Trump has allowed Russia to expand its own sphere of influence (Reuters)

Four years ago, the Kremlin somehow got its man. Contrary to polls and expectations, the “deal maker” who wanted to “get along” with Vladimir Putin saw off Hillary Clinton, with her less than friendly intentions. The image of veteran nationalist showman Vladimir Zhirinovksy, Russia’s Trump before Trump, celebrating with champagne was the takeaway memory of that night in Moscow.

It’s an understatement to say that things have not quite worked out since then.

Donald Trump’s chaotic and tempestuous presidency has certainly delivered on one front: dividing the great enemy. He has polarised the United States, undermined Nato and jettisoned the transatlantic alliance. He has scaled back US involvement in international conflicts, and allowed Russia to expand its own sphere of influence.

But the other side of the coin has been maddening – and is giving some in the Kremlin pause before fully embracing the idea of a second Trump presidency.

The fundamentals of the last four years have not been good for Russia. Hacking allegations, an inquiry into Russian influence, and the impeachment process have meant Moscow has never been far from the front pages of a fixated and often hysterical US news cycle. No amount of friendship with the big boss has protected against sanctions from the multiple institutions that run US foreign policy.

Then there is the sheer anarchy of working with the Trump administration. Russian officials complained that they didn’t know who they should be talking to. When they were in communication, exchanges were reduced to shouting matches. Never before had US-Russian relations been so toxic, complained the officials. On this, at least, the Americans agreed.

In their final debate this week, both Joe Biden and Trump claimed that their opponent was the one the Kremlin wanted to see win. They could both be right for different reasons. According to the influential political commentator Tatyana Stanovaya, Russian elites are now genuinely split on what the best outcome would be.

Stanovaya identifies four schools of thought: an increasing minority who still think Trump is their man; those who see Trump as a way to sow chaos in the west; those who think the lack of professionalism in the Trump administration is ultimately harmful to Russian interests; and finally those who think terrible relations with the west are a goal as a way of pushing a more conservative agenda at home.  

There is no predominant logic in the corridors of power, Stanovaya suggests. “Many in Putin’s circle are running around with their head in their hands when they see what Trump is doing,” she says. “US relations were once regulated by sophisticated schools of diplomacy – but no one needs that now.”

None of this is to say Moscow isn’t wary of Biden, whose hawkish views on the Kremlin are well known. As a former vice-president, he bears the scars of a failed “reset”, and the subsequent emergence of Moscow as a disruptive foreign policy actor. Biden was also in charge of Ukraine policy throughout its war with Russia, and left no doubt where his sympathies were.

The Kremlin remembers an official visit to Moscow in 2011, when the then vice-president met with human rights activists and appeared to tacitly support Dmitry Medvedev’s claims to the presidency over Putin, who was prime minister at the time. In a 2014 interview with The New Yorker, Biden said he told the former KGB operative that he “had no soul”. Putin may well have taken those public slights personally.

“The Russian president can hold a grudge, and this would appear quite enough to form a negative opinion,” suggests the political commentator Maria Lipman.

At the same time, we are yet to see anything like the same level of spite and apprehension that accompanied the prospect of a Hillary Clinton presidency last time around.

In an interview with state television released on his 7 October birthday, the Russian president even appeared to hold out an olive branch to the Democratic candidate. The Kremlin shared “common values” with Biden’s party, Putin suggested. They promoted social democracy – well, so did he in his Communist youth. The altogether weird intervention was met with puzzlement inside Russia. On a very basic level, the Democrats, with their emphasis on human rights, were traditionally viewed as more unsympathetic to Soviet interests than the Republicans.

Compared with the aggressive cheerleading over the last campaign, Russian state propaganda also seems barely committed to Trump. One angle certainly receiving attention in Russia is supposed irregularities of the US voting system. That may become relevant in the event of a close result. Otherwise, coverage of the US elections is superficial, light-hearted, way down in the news bulletins, and doesn’t even focus on the personalities involved.

The sleepy coverage is reflected in weak opinions among ordinary Russians. Back in 2016, Russia was the only nation out of 45 who supported Trump over Clinton, and an overwhelming majority considered the US election to be the most important event of the year. This time around, the overwhelming majority don’t care. According to independent pollsters Levada, 65 per cent believe that the outcome of the election bears no significance for relations with their country.

It is hard not to conclude they may have a point. Whoever wins on 3 November, it seems sensible to expect high-level antagonism to continue. If Trump wins, Russia will remain a proxy with which to beat the erratic showman. If Biden wins, and even if Trump concedes, it will be no easy task to govern and persuade the US Congress away from its current combative pose.

“Politics have become so vicious on both sides that it has become a self-fulfilling cycle,” says Lipman. “We are past the phase where the appearance of one man can change any of this.”