War in Ukraine will affect food prices – the real question is how badly

There is likely to be social disruption and there may be political consequences that I don’t think any of us can predict, writes Hamish McRae

There will be grave distress right across the emerging economies (EPA)

The focus is shifting from energy to food. The impact on energy prices was the immediate and obvious effect of the war in Ukraine and the efforts by the west not to buy oil and gas from Russia, if they could possibly do so.

That concern remains at the front of all our minds, not least if we are filling up a car on a forecourt, but the markets are beginning to adjust to the situation, and the Brent oil price was back below $100 a barrel yesterday. Gas is more difficult, particularly for Europe, but the EU has announced a plan to phase out Russian gas and there are alternative energy sources.

The impact on food supplies has been less immediate, but in social terms, is more alarming, for the simple reason that food accounts for a higher proportion of the family budgets of poorer people than it does of the middle classes and the rich. The average for the UK is 11 per cent of income spent on food, whereas in India it is around 33 per cent. In Nigeria it is more than half. That is the average, remember, so for many poorer families the proportion is higher still, and all these numbers predate the current emergency.