In the end, it is voter turnout that will drive progress in America

He may seem like a fool, but it’s wrong to underestimate President Trump’s cynicism and ruthlessness, writes Sean O'Grady

Donald’s disciples: Trump always has his base in mind (Reuters)

What will America look like in a month’s time? I’d imagine that Donald Trump will still be in the White House, the police won’t have learnt much of a lesson, and Covid-19 will still be taking the lives of the most vulnerable. And George Floyd will not be the last life to be taken in the cruel way his was.

I’ve seen it written that “rioting is the American way”, which seems both a complacent piece of ironic chauvinism on the part of some Americans, and an often snobbish response from Europeans who too readily ignore the same thing happening in their own streets over the decades. There’s nothing that routine about burning things down, but still, yes, life will go on, the pandemic will continue and black lives won’t matter as much as they should.

Much as part of me would like to imagine the protests outside the White House constituting some sort of Marxist-Leninist precursor to revolution, I don’t think that those involved will find themselves in the Oval Office proclaiming a workers’ state or something.

Protests can shock the authorities into changing their ways, for a time, with conciliatory gestures and inquiries, before people – including police but not just them – often slide back into older habits and attitudes. That is what has happened over many decades, and will happen again, despite calls for calm.

In fact President Trump is unusual in that he actively avoids calm, and seeks escalation in violence, wanting to meet looting with shooting, talking about “dominance” and putting the military on the streets – beyond the police and national guard.

What will happen when American soldier shoots dead a peaceful American protester? Trump doesn’t care. He’s happy to watch America burn, with the possible exception of his own real estate. He may calculate that the anarchy and his own show of uncompromising brute force will go down well with his base. Remember those remarks at the time of Charlottesville about “very fine people on both sides”?

Trump’s a fighter not a blessed peacemaker, even if he waves the Bible around. Do you imagine he’s ever read it? I think for him, St John’s Church across the way from the White House, is a like a strategic target in Iraq or Afghanistan, a bastion to be seized from the enemy and held, rather than a house of Christian love. Trump doesn’t seem the type of guy to ask of himself “what would Jesus do?” He probably reckons Almighty God asks “what would Donald do?”

Trump has already blamed Democrats for the unrest – “liberal governors and mayors” – and there’ll be much more of that to come. Soon it’ll all be Joe Biden’s fault, maybe Obama’s. Trump wants to use revulsion at the violence and those dishonouring the memory of George Floyd to win some “moderate” votes. He may seem like a fool but it’s wrong to underestimate Trump’s cynicism and ruthlessness.

We all know what Trump should be doing: meeting with the family; an immediate national address; multi-denominational prayers; a pledge for justice and restitution; a rally for peace; healing the wounds; making changes. Whatever progress has ever been made and will ever be made – halting and frustrating and partial as it is – has had to be driven from the top.

Trump even less than any president since the war is not going to deliver that. The election in November will in part be turned by the votes of people of all backgrounds who simply stayed home in 2016 compared with 2008 and 2012, when Americans elected and re-elected Obama. Some four million ex-Obama voters didn’t vote for Hilary Clinton last time, and more than a third of them were black. Maybe that was the fault of her campaign, but there is perhaps a lesson to be learned.

Do people really want Trump to be able to turn up at some victory rally in six months’ time and patronise and brag, as he did in 2016, like this: “We did great with the African-American community. So good. Remember – remember the famous line, because I talk about crime, I talk about education, I talk about no jobs. And I’d say, what the hell do you have to lose? Right? It’s true. And they’re smart, and they picked up on it like you wouldn’t believe. And you know what else? They didn’t come out for Hilary. They didn’t come out. And that was a big – so thank you to the African American community”.

If Americans don’t want another four long years of that, and worse, they know what to do: go out and vote.