Whether the US economy is in ‘phemeomenal shape’ or not, Trump’s re-election chances depend on a quick recovery

How far is the recovery down to the policies of the Trump administration and what does this do in political terms for the president? These are not easy questions to answer, writes Hamish McRae

An unexpected shock could hand the advantage to the president’s Democrat rivals (AFP/Getty)

Will “the economy, stupid” rescue Donald Trump? The famous phrase, coined by Bill Clinton’s strategist James Carville, is regarded as giving direction to his successful presidential campaign in 1992, when the US economy was struggling out of recession.

The US economy is again struggling out of a recession, which in terms of its depth, not of its duration, is far deeper than that of the early 1990s. Donald Trump, however, is the incumbent rather than the challenger, which explains his eagerness to show that the economy is recovering and in “phenomenal” shape.

But is it? How far is the recovery down to the policies of the Trump administration? And what does this do in political terms for the president?