Boris Johnson’s optimism will lead the UK into a third wave of coronavirus

A precautionary approach does not wait for unambiguous data before taking action to mitigate risks, it takes action while waiting for the scientific evidence to catch up with the virus, writes Dr Simon Williams

‘The UK government was too slow to react to the first wave, despite a number of scientists warning of the need to lock down earlier’ (PA)

Yet again the UK government has waited too long to take precautionary measures.

Despite the leaders of the four nations meeting this week for a coronavirus recovery summit, the gulf between their approaches to stemming the tide of the third wave is as wide as ever. Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon announced a “slight slowing down” of the planned easing of restrictions, while Wales’ first minister Mark Drakeford announced a “phased” approach to entering alert level one.

Most significantly, the Welsh government has decided not to introduce the “rule of six” which allows up to six people to meet in private homes – a decision they will review on the 21 June.  This is of course the same, now infamous, date that the UK government has earmarked for the possible removal of all legal limits on social contact.

Regardless of whether it turns out as such, it’s an incredible contrast to think that England could be removing all legal limits at the same time as Wales is only just re-introducing the rule of six, particularly since Covid-19 rates are currently much lower in the latter.

For months the prime minister and key government ministers have promoted rhetoric of “cautious optimism”.  Only in the last week have we seen some cracks appear in this narrative, with both the prime minister and the health secretary Matt Hancock cryptically suggesting that there is “nothing in the data” yet to suggest that a delay to the 21 June unlocking is needed. In light of new Public Health England data, which suggests that the delta variant is both more transmissible and more likely to cause hospitalisation compared to the Alpha variant, it is hard to see how the UK government can proceed without some delay.

Either way, the recent suggestion that ambiguous data is behind the decision not to delay is yet another example of the fact that the UK government has waited too long to take precautionary measures. Dominic Cummings’s recent testimony all but confirms what many already knew - the UK government was too slow to react to the first wave, despite a number of scientists warning of the need to lockdown earlier.

In Wales, the devastating second wave was driven by the emergence of a new and more transmissible variant – the Alpha (formerly, Kent) variant. Although the transmissibility of the new variant took the Welsh government by surprise, the virus’s spread was helped by post-firebreak measures that were too relaxed coupled with a reluctance to go back into lockdown sooner. 

However, this week’s decision to phase into alert level one appears to be a case of once bitten, twice shy for the Welsh government, which is walking the walk of precaution in its policy, as well as talking the talk.

On the other hand, Johnson’s quixotic optimism appears to be leading the UK into a third wave, driven by the rise of the Delta variant. The UK public is being urged to be cautious, while the policy approach, including a delay in adding India to the red list and in reintroducing hugging, has been anything but.

By definition, a precautionary approach does not wait for unambiguous data before taking action to mitigate risks, for fear of it being too late. Rather it takes action while waiting for the scientific evidence to catch up with the virus, hopefully mitigating harms in the meanwhile. After all, in a matter of weeks, a much greater proportion of the adult population will have received both doses of a vaccine.

Johnson’s mismanagement of the pandemic is a classic case of “Prozac leadership”. Prozac leaders believe their own narrative that everything is going well. They also discourage dissenting views and fail to admit mistakes. The true extent of the prime minister’s inability to admit and learn from mistakes was also laid bare by Cummings’ testimony.

This may not be the first time we see a “Cummings effect” on public confidence in the UK government, which had started to improve of late, thanks largely to the success of the vaccination program.  Trust and confidence in the UK government has been consistently lower than trust and confidence in the devolved governments over the course of the pandemic.  

This is not just a matter of politics, but also a matter of public health, since trust in government has been found to be one of the biggest predictors of compliance with Covid measures. Until more of us are fully vaccinated, compliance with social distancing and self-isolation remains a key weapon to curb the third wave.

If the four nations summit is indeed to be more than just a “talking shop”, then the prime minister might do well to take a page out of Mark Drakeford’s more authentically precautionary and pragmatic playbook.  A good first step would be to confirm to the public that 21 June requires postponement, and that caution in the short-term can allow for genuine optimism for the (slightly) longer term.

Dr Simon Williams is a senior lecturer in people and organisation at Swansea University