Sue Gray, the ‘grim executioner’, is coming for Boris Johnson – but it’s the public he needs to worry about

Gray has a deserved reputation for fearlessness, writes Andrew Grice, but senior Whitehall figures insist she will assemble the facts rather than pass judgement

Sue Gray’s report is expected to criticise the culture in Downing Street (PA Wire)

When Sue Gray was in charge of government ethics, she was known in Whitehall as “the grim executioner” and “the witchfinder general”. She’s a reclusive figure who likes to remain in the shadows, although former colleagues recall she was a karaoke star at Cabinet Office staff parties – well before lockdown, of course. Ministers described her as “the most powerful person the public has never heard of”.

Now everyone has heard of her, or soon will have. And everyone is “waiting for Sue Gray”, which became the most frequently used phrase at Westminster this week. Tory backbenchers. The cabinet. The Metropolitan Police. Above all, Boris Johnson, who on Wednesday put his fate in the hands of the senior civil servant investigating “partygate”.

Yet Johnson knew precisely what he was doing. Although Gray has a deserved reputation for fearlessness, senior Whitehall figures insist she will assemble the facts rather than pass judgement on her political and civil service masters. Her previous sleaze inquiries cost Tory cabinet ministers Damian Green, Andrew Mitchell and Liam Fox their jobs, but in each case she reported to... the prime minister.

Now she finds herself in the unprecedented position of reporting to the PM about the PM, as well as to the cabinet secretary Simon Case, who recused himself from leading the inquiry because a quiz was held in his office.

Gray, now second permanent secretary responsible for the union in Michael Gove’s levelling up department, is chasing a moving target. The party that Johnson attended emerged after she had started her work. Now we know about two more No 10 parties, on the eve of Prince Philip’s funeral. I think that makes 10 (including Whitehall departments and Tory HQ), though the number will probably have grown by the time you read this.

The painful reminder of the Queen sitting alone at her husband’s funeral, observing the rules those in Downing Street were ignoring, will prolong Johnson’s agony. No 10 has now apologised to Buckingham Palace. There’s little point in trying to pretend it’s business as usual; the government machine is paralysed while “waiting for Sue Gray”.

Johnson allies talk of an “independent inquiry”, but it’s not – it’s internal. Despite speculation to the contrary, Gray can’t rule on whether Johnson broke the ministerial code. He would have to order another inquiry into that by Christopher Geidt, his adviser on ministers’ interests, who cannot instigate his own investigations.

Johnson is judge, jury and defendant, proving beyond doubt that our system for upholding standards in public life is not fit for purpose. The PM holds all the cards: he will also control the release of Gray’s verdict. The terms of reference promise only that “the findings” will be “made public”, which is not a guarantee that her full report will be published.

Labour figures privately regret not pressing for a judge-led inquiry, but shouldn’t beat themselves up: Johnson would never have taken such a gamble. Appointing Gray was a calculated move. His allies hope she will highlight a culture of after-work drinking among officials, mainly civil servants, though it would be very odd if political aides escaped blame.

Whitehall insiders tell me they believe Gray will “steer a middle course” between delivering a fatal blow to Johnson (she won’t want to bring down a PM, just as Geidt didn’t want to over the Downing Street flat refurb) and avoiding the charge of a “whitewash” (she may criticise Johnson’s judgement in attending the May 2020 party in his garden). One said: “It is not the job of a civil servant to hold a minister or prime minister to account. It’s not how the system works. It’s for parliament.”

Johnson hopes to avoid the career-ending charge of misleading parliament by arguing he was talking about pre-Christmas 2020 events last month when he said “there was no party”, rather than a gathering last May. Dancing on thin ice, but officials who have looked at his exchanges with Keir Starmer think he might get away with it. 

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The PM would then announce the long-promised shake up of No 10 staff to sweep the stables clean, with some possibly being disciplined. He would then move on, hoping that ending coronavirus restrictions in England would revive his fortunes.

It won’t be that easy. Despite the advance billing, the Gray report will not decide Johnson’s fate. It might influence what will – public opinion – which in turn will decide whether Tory MPs decide to force him out in the hope of saving their own skins at the next election. 

The biggest threat to Johnson is that people have already made their minds up about him. If they now want him to go, they are unlikely to change their view. Why would they? The opinion polls are disastrous, with Labour enjoying a 10-point lead. Johnson’s “apology (sort of)” hasn’t helped him. Unless the polls improve, he will be forced out by his jittery party, probably after the May local elections.