How Rishi Sunak might redefine the ‘triple lock’ on pensions

John Rentoul engages in what the chancellor describes as ‘speculation’ about how the government might wriggle out of its promise to older people

The chancellor says he recognises people’s concerns (Getty)

The pensions triple lock “is the government’s policy” said the chancellor on breakfast TV, but “I very much recognise people’s concerns”. How reasonable, reassuring and completely ambiguous.

The promise to raise the state pension in line with prices, earnings or 2.5 per cent, whichever is highest, is known as the triple lock. It was invented by the coalition government in 2010 and repeated in all the main party manifestos, including the Conservative manifesto of 2019.

The problem with it is that the coronavirus crisis has distorted average earnings, first downwards, which was all right because at the last pension uprating, the 2.5 per cent kicked in. But since then earnings have recovered from the dip, which is why the Office for Budget Responsibility said this week that the usual figure for average earnings that would be used to calculate the triple lock is currently a 5.6 per cent increase, and it could be 8 per cent by the time next year’s pension increase is decided.