A bleak future for Russia: How will Putin’s war in Ukraine affect the global economy long term?

Look 10 years down the line and Russia will have found itself back in the position it was in 1980 – lagging increasingly behind the west, writes Hamish McRae

We can begin to glimpse how Russia’s economic relationship with the west is likely to be transformed over the course of this decade (AFP/Getty)

Sometimes it is easier to look 10 years forward than 10 days – and so it is with the horrible events taking place following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But it is becoming clear, at least here in Washington, that the Russian people will face a bleak economic future while the present regime remains in power.

The immediate picture is one of the US pushing EU countries to toughen up Europe’s economic response to Russia. Germany in particular has moved radically, a sharp contrast to its policies of a few weeks ago. It seems extraordinary now that Germany should have pressed on with the completion of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and only halted plans for its certification this month.

Some Russian banks have just been excluded from the Swift international payments system, but we don’t know for how long the ban will last or how extensive it will turn out to be. However, we can begin to glimpse how Russia’s economic relationship with the west is likely to be transformed over the course of this decade, unless and until there is radical change in Moscow.