While all eyes are on Ukraine, there’s another conflict licking at Russia’s borders

The violent confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh – a disputed region which has led to two wars – is threatening to erupt once again, writes Kim Sengupta

Vladimir Putin is going to be in the Armenian capital, Yerevan, this week (AP)

Vladimir Putin stayed away from the G20 summit in Bali to avoid the opprobrium he would have faced over his invasion of Ukraine. But this week he is going to be in the Armenian capital, Yerevan, as another conflict threatens to spread on Russia’s borders.

While international focus has been on Ukraine, the violent confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh – a disputed region which has led to two wars – is threatening to erupt once again.

A brief conflict two years ago has been followed by several large-scale clashes, with hundreds reported killed. Civilians have been forced to flee their homes, and there has been widespread destruction of cultural heritage. More than 120 square kilometres of its territory, says Armenia, is now occupied.

Gruesome images of atrocities have surfaced on social media, including one of an elderly Armenian villager being decapitated and his head being put on a pig’s carcass. Another image shows the naked body of a female Armenian soldier with her legs cut off, her eyes gouged out and a severed finger in her mouth.

They emerged at a time, however, when Ukrainian forces had begun to make spectacular advances against the Russians, with mass graves and torture victims being found in newly liberated areas. As a result, the images of the Armenian deaths did not get widespread publicity.

The Azerbaijan government has dismissed the accounts of atrocities as fake. Human Rights Watch, however, has verified some accounts of the torture of civilians by Azeri forces.

There is now concern that the outbreak of another war may further draw in other states in the region, in particular Turkey and Iran.

The Turkic “ two states, one nation” policy ties Ankara and Baku together, and Azari forces are heavily backed by the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Turkish Bayraktar drones showed their effectiveness in this conflict, and were subsequently used with much success by the Ukrainians against the Russians. Syrian fighters who had acted as Ankara’s proxies in the Syrian civil war were deployed on the ground.

The Azeris have also been receiving substantial arms supplies from Israel and Pakistan, and claim to have the backing of the Gulf States and wider Muslim community in the conflict against Christian Armenia.

While needing weapons, Azerbaijan has something hugely valuable to sell in this time of acute energy crisis. The European Union is one of its many customers, with Russian gas disappearing from the market due to the Ukraine war. It has turned to “a trustworthy partner”, as Commission President Ursula von der Leyen put it, and signed a deal with the autocratic regime of Ilham Aliyev to double imports from the country.

The relationship between Tehran and Yerevan has been one of mutual convenience, with Armenia seeking allies in the neighbourhood and long-standing animosity between Azerbaijan and Iran.

Maps have appeared in Baku showing Iran’s northern provinces as part of “Greater Azerbaijan”; Iran has carried out military exercises along its borders; Baku has threatened to promote a secessionist movement among the 16 million ethnic Azeris living in Iran.

So what about Russia, the regional superpower and guarantor of the security of Armenia since its independence in 1991, as well as a fellow member of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation)?

Putin brokered talks between the two adversaries in Sochi during the fighting, but there has been no withdrawal of Azeri troops since then, nor a release of Armenian prisoners. Moscow’s response has been muted.

Aliyev’s pronouncements, meanwhile, have remained belligerent. In his recent Victory Day speech, the Azeri President said: “The lessons of the second Karabakh war should not be forgotten by Armenia, and they should know that playing with fire will cost them dearly... We are teaching this lesson and we hope that they will finally understand it, bend their necks... They will not lay eyes on our land, they will not lay eyes on Karabakh; Karabakh is our land.

“Armenia was defeated in the Second Karabakh War, and its army was destroyed. A defeated country cannot behave like this. Therefore, all our steps are justified. It is true that some foreign patrons of Armenia want to blame us for something. I have given their answer. If they still ban something, I will still answer them. It won’t stop me.”

What has unfolded is an illustration of changing power balance. The continuing failure in the Ukraine campaign has left Vladimir Putin in a vulnerable position in relation to Erdogan, Azerbaijan’s chief backer.

There were times, such as after Turkey shot down a Russian warplane in 2015, when the Russian leader held the whip-hand in the standoff that followed. That is no longer the case. Putin needs Erdogan’s help over Ukraine on a range of issues, including access to the Black Sea.

There has been support for Armenia from some states.

The French parliament has called, among other measures, for the withdrawal of Azeri forces and release of prisoners of war, with sanctions against Baku if it fails to comply. It has also asked Emmanuel Macron’s government to help strengthen Armenia’s defences.

India is supplying long-range artillery, including multi-barrelled rocket launchers and anti-tank ammunition, to Armenia, with purchases of surface-to-air missiles and drones reported to be under discussion.

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But it is what the US does now which may determine what happens next. Secretary of state Antony Blinken has called on Azerbaijan to “cease the hostilities” and “disengage military forces”. He reportedly told the Armenian prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, that he will personally “deal with the issue” to ensure the situation is normalised.

Nancy Pelosi, the departing house speaker, led a congressional delegation to Armenia in September and tweeted that she was a “proud and longtime champion of Armenia”.

There have been demonstrations in Yerevan against Russia’s inaction, calls to leave the CSTO, plus questions on whether Moscow can be regarded as a reliable ally any longer. Putin, they claim, is cosying up to strongmen and abandoning a long-term ally.

A vacuum left by disappearing Russian influence in Armenia may well be filled by the US and Western allies. And that, if it happens, will be another example of how Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine is continuing to backfire for Russia on the wider international stage.